Metaplanet Nears Key Threshold That Could Unlock Major Bitcoin Purchases

Shares of Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet are approaching a critical technical level. A sustained break above this point would trigger a mechanism releasing hundreds of millions in capital, earmarked exclusively for additional Bitcoin acquisition. This potential catalyst is being amplified by a significant endorsement from a major figure within the cryptocurrency industry.

The rally is receiving considerable support from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. Hayes has publicly disclosed establishing long positions in both Metaplanet and MicroStrategy (MSTR). He views these equities as leveraged plays on a Bitcoin price recovery, offering exposure without engaging directly in derivative markets.

His investment thesis centers on valuation. Following corrections from their mid-2025 peaks, Hayes noted that both companies were trading near the lower bounds of their two-year valuation ranges. He anticipates renewed investor inflows into these stocks should Bitcoin reclaim the $110,000 price level.

A Treasury Ambition: Targeting 1% of Total Bitcoin Supply

Metaplanet’s corporate strategy is notably ambitious. Currently, the company’s balance sheet holds 35,102 Bitcoin, ranking it as the world’s fourth-largest publicly traded holder of the cryptocurrency and the foremost in Asia. Its long-term goal is to accumulate 210,000 Bitcoin by 2027—a figure representing approximately 1% of the entire Bitcoin supply.

From a technical perspective, the stock has already staged a powerful recovery, rallying roughly 90% from its December lows. Recent trading volume has consistently exceeded the three-month average, suggesting heightened interest, potentially from institutional players.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?

The 637 Yen Gateway to Fresh Capital

The immediate focus for markets is the 637 yen per share threshold. The stock currently trades just about 5% below this pivotal mark. This price point is key to activating the 23rd series of warrants held by the EVO Fund. Surpassing it would enable the exercise of rights for up to 105 million new shares.

The capital raised from this issuance is designated to flow directly into further Bitcoin purchases. This mechanism was previously dormant; the share price had fallen 80% from its June 2025 all-time high, causing the company to halt issuance to prevent dilution for existing shareholders. This decision was triggered when the ratio of market value to net asset value (mNAV) dropped below 1.0. That ratio has since rebounded to 1.36, its highest level since October 2025, making a capital increase arithmetically attractive for current holders once more.

Market Outlook and Upcoming Catalysts

Investor attention is now divided between the immediate technical battle at 637 yen and forthcoming financial results. The company’s quarterly earnings are scheduled for release on February 9th and 10th, 2026.

The market’s current pricing of Metaplanet shares at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings indicates that investors are already factoring in a significant probability of the capital engine restarting. The coming sessions will determine if the stock can definitively clear the gateway to fund its ambitious accumulation strategy.