Lynas Faces Sell Rating Despite Year-to-Date Rally as Analysts Split

After a solid start to the year, Lynas Rare Earths has climbed more than 38% in 2026, yet Ord Minnett remains decidedly cautious, reaffirming a Sell rating and signaling ongoing downside risk.

Analyst Matthew Hope sticks to a target price of AUD 11.00, well below the current price level. In contrast, the U.S.-listed LYSCF closed on February 13 at USD 11.40. This cautious stance from Ord Minnett stands in stark relief to the stock?s recent momentum and raises questions about whether the rally is sustainable.

Ord Minnett?s view is notably contrarian relative to peers. Other institutions currently issue Buy recommendations with price targets ranging from AUD 17.00 to AUD 18.10. TipRanks aggregates a consensus rating of ?Moderate Buy,? with an average 12-month target around AUD 15.53.

This broad spread underscores unsettled expectations for Lynas? trajectory. Bulls point to Lynas? market position and rising commodity prices, while skeptics urge caution about potential headwinds ahead.

Strong quarterly results amid operative headwinds

In January, Lynas reported a 43% quarter-over-quarter jump in revenue, reaching AUD 201.9 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. The surge was driven primarily by higher selling prices, which rose to AUD 85.60 per kilogram.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lynas?

However, the company is navigating some disruption. The Kalgoorlie production facility faced power outages early in 2026, which weighed on output. Adding to the near-term uncertainty is an upcoming leadership transition, with long-standing CEO Amanda Lacaze announcing she will depart at the close of the fiscal year.

Geopolitical tailwinds persist

The rare earths sector continues to benefit from geopolitical frictions and Western efforts to diversify supply chains. On February 13, the LYSCF stock advanced about 3.73% to USD 11.40. In the same week, the ASX 200 gained 2.40%.

The question remains whether Lynas? operational progress and the current market environment justify its valuation or whether Ord Minnett?s conservative stance reflects a more balanced assessment. The upcoming months should reveal whether the bulls or the bears have the better read on Lynas.

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