Lilly’s Orforglipron Push: Massive Pre-Launch Stockpile Ahead of FDA Ruling

Key points:
- Pre-launch inventory for Orforglipron: $1.5B
- Year-ago stockpile level: $550M (nearly tripled)
- FDA status: Fast Track, decision expected in April 2026
- Share performance: close at $1,038.59, +2.3% (yesterday)

Inventory build-up: why it matters
The near-tripling of the pre-launch stockpile signals Lilly’s intent to avoid a cautious, staged market test. Instead, the company appears to be preparing for a swift ramp-up in the event of approval, with plans for a simultaneous rollout across multiple markets.

The competitive backdrop is tightening. Novo Nordisk has already rolled out its own obesity treatment in the United States early in the month. IQVIA data show the medication tallying more than 26,000 prescriptions by its second week, highlighting strong demand for needle-free therapies and increasing pressure on Lilly to achieve a timely, high-volume launch if Orforglipron wins clearance.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eli Lilly?

Pipeline expansion: Orna Therapeutics deal worth up to $2.4B
As Lilly builds its metabolism portfolio, it is widening its technology base through a forthcoming acquisition. On February 9, the company announced a binding agreement to acquire Orna Therapeutics, with a potential total value of up to $2.4 billion.

The acquisition grants Lilly access to Orna’s Circular-RNA platform and in vivo CAR-T approaches. The leading program, ORN-252, targets B-cell autoimmune diseases and is positioned to advance into clinical studies.

Financials, guidance, and the dividend date
The hefty upfront investments tied to the stockpile align with Lilly’s solid operating momentum. In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $19.29 billion, up 42.6% year over year. For the full year 2026, management’s outlook calls for revenue of $80–83 billion, with expected earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $33.50–$35.00.

Today also marks the ex-dividend date for Lilly’s raised quarterly payout. Shareholders of record will receive a cash distribution of $1.73 per share on March 10, 2026.