Labor Dispute Looms Over US Foods’ Growth Ambitions

US Foods enters a critical period marked by a stark contrast between its robust financial targets and escalating labor tensions. As the company prepares to release its quarterly figures, investors are weighing the potential impact of a looming strike on its operations.

Despite the threat of significant labor disruption, US Foods' leadership recently reaffirmed its ambitious financial guidance for fiscal year 2025. The company anticipates revenue growth of up to 5% and expects its adjusted EBITDA to increase by as much as 12%. A key component of this growth strategy is the accelerated expansion of its "Pronto" delivery model. Long-term sales expectations for this service have been raised substantially, from $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

This confidence is partly rooted in a strong prior quarterly performance. For Q3, the company reported net sales of $10.2 billion, a 4.8% increase, while adjusted earnings per share surged by nearly 26%. Notably, volume growth among independent restaurants—a key customer segment for margins—rose by 3.9%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying US Foods?

Impending Strike Threatens Supply Chain

The operational calm is threatened by a developing labor conflict in Indiana. The existing collective bargaining agreement expired without a new deal, and the Teamsters Local 135 union has rejected any contract extension. Members recently held a symbolic vigil, signaling that a work stoppage could be imminent.

The employees involved are crucial to the distribution network, servicing restaurants, universities, and hospitals across Indiana and into Louisville. A central question for management is how swiftly this dispute can be resolved before sustained supply chain interruptions occur.

Investor Focus Turns to February Report

All eyes are now on February 12, 2026, when US Foods will disclose detailed results for its fourth quarter and full fiscal year during a conference call scheduled for 3:00 PM CET. Market participants will scrutinize the report for any early signs of margin pressure stemming from the labor unrest. The coming weeks will test the company's ability to navigate these operational challenges while staying on course to meet its elevated financial goals.