Kaspi.kz Shares: Navigating Headwinds in a Growth Story

Kazakhstan's financial technology leader Kaspi.kz continues to post remarkable expansion metrics across its core operations. However, significant external pressures threaten to undermine this impressive performance. The company finds itself contending with regulatory challenges and supply chain disruptions, raising questions about its ability to fully leverage its underlying strength.

The investment community appears divided on Kaspi.kz's prospects. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance with a $107 price target and "Buy" recommendation, while the broader analyst consensus currently sits at "Hold." Despite this cautious outlook, institutional investors demonstrated renewed confidence during the third quarter of 2025, with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group and Renaissance Capital both increasing their positions in the company.

Further signaling management's confidence in the company's valuation, Kaspi.kz announced a $100 million share repurchase program scheduled to begin in November. For the full fiscal year, corporate leadership projects revenue growth of approximately 20 percent.

Strong Fundamentals Amid Challenges

Kaspi.kz delivered robust performance across its primary business segments in Q3 2025. The marketplace division surged 24 percent, while payment processing volume advanced 18 percent. Supplementary services including Kaspi Delivery and Kaspi Advertising contributed significantly to top-line results. Even the fintech segment, operating in a high-interest rate environment, managed a respectable 21 percent gain.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Kaspi.kz?

Beneath these impressive figures, however, lie substantial headwinds. Regulatory changes in Kazakhstan—specifically a new 10 percent tax on government bond yields, increased minimum reserve requirements, and rising benchmark interest rates—collectively reduced net profit by six percent. More significantly, smartphone supply shortages, particularly affecting iPhone availability, cost the company eight percent in merchandise value growth and three percent in overall profitability.

Underlying Strength and Strategic Initiatives

When adjusted for these external factors, Kaspi.kz's fundamental potential becomes clearer. Without the smartphone constraints and regulatory burdens, both revenue and profit would have advanced by over 20 percent in the third quarter. Company executives express confidence that supply chain issues will be resolved by 2026.

Concurrently, Kaspi.kz continues to drive innovation. The current quarter will see the launch of "Kaspi Alaqan," a payment service utilizing palm-scanning technology. The company is also expanding Kaspi Pay's reach through partnerships with six Kazakh banks and O!Bank in Kyrgyzstan. The collaboration with Alipay+ provides access to global payment networks, opening new growth avenues.

Future Outlook

Despite present challenges, Kaspi.kz maintains an optimistic forward view. The critical question remains whether the company can translate its operational strength into sustained growth despite external pressures, or if its full potential will remain constrained by factors beyond its control.