Is Political Risk in Mali a Hidden Threat to Barrick’s Rally?

Barrick Gold shares have surged to record highs, but this upward trajectory coincides with a significant shift in the political landscape of Mali, a key operational region for the miner. The Malian government has issued a decree consolidating complete authority over the mining sector under the direct control of the presidential office. This move places critical decisions regarding permits and contract negotiations for operations like Barrick's massive Loulo-Gounkoto complex squarely in the hands of the state's highest authority.

Despite the emerging geopolitical concerns, the market has responded positively to Barrick's recent financial results. The company reported earnings per share of $0.58, slightly surpassing analyst expectations. Revenue saw a substantial year-over-year increase of 23.2%, reaching $4.19 billion. This robust performance propelled the stock to a new 52-week high of $50.81.

This optimism was echoed by several research firms. Bank of America upgraded its rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" and raised its price target, while Scotiabank moved its stance from "Sector Perform" to "Sector Outperform."

New Decree Centralizes Mining Authority

The recent presidential decree establishes a dedicated ministry reporting exclusively to Mali's president. This new body is tasked with enforcing the country's 2023 mining law and leading all strategic negotiations with mining companies. In a notable appointment, the government named Hilaire Bebian Diarra, a former Barrick manager, to lead this agency.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

Diarra's insider knowledge of the company adds a complex layer to the situation. His appointment follows a two-year dispute between Barrick and the Malian government specifically concerning the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex.

Operational Disruption Highlights Vulnerability

Recent history demonstrates how swiftly political tensions can translate into tangible production challenges. During the aforementioned dispute with authorities, output from the Loulo-Gounkoto complex plummeted from 22.5 tonnes of gold in 2024 to just 5.5 tonnes in 2025—a 75% collapse.

The impact was felt nationwide: Mali's total industrial gold production fell by nearly 23%. The disruption was so severe that competitor B2Gold temporarily overtook Barrick as the country's largest gold producer.

The fundamental question for investors remains: Can operational successes and rising global gold demand sustainably offset the structural risks now embedded in a pivotal market like Mali? The new legal framework unquestionably grants the government far greater direct control over the mining sector than it previously held.