Has UPS Stock Found Its Floor?

As UPS prepares to release its quarterly earnings, a notable shift in sentiment is emerging from Wall Street. Several major financial institutions have recently revised their price targets upward, prompting investors to reconsider their positions. This collective move raises a critical question: is this the start of a sustained recovery for the parcel delivery giant, or merely a short-term technical rebound? Current analyst commentary suggests the recent declines may have already been fully accounted for in the share price.

• JPMorgan: Price target raised to $99 from $97; maintains Neutral rating.
• Sanford C. Bernstein: Price target increased to $125 from $122; maintains Outperform rating.
• Citi: Price target lifted to $126 from $120; maintains Buy rating.
• Bank of America: Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral; sets price target at $114.
• Dividend Yield: Currently above 6%.
• Q4 Earnings: Report scheduled for January 27; consensus estimates project EPS between $2.17 and $2.21, with revenue around $23.95 billion (Q4 2024 revenue: $25.3 billion).

Wall Street Recalibrates Its View

The most significant adjustment came from Bank of America, which upgraded its rating on UPS shares from Underperform to Neutral, accompanied by a $114 target. Other firms made substantial increases to their forecasts as well. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein and Citi set more bullish targets, implying potential for double-digit percentage gains from current trading levels. JPMorgan took a more measured approach, issuing a modest target increase to $99 while reiterating its Neutral stance.

Taken together, these revisions indicate that major banks are beginning to perceive a valuation floor for UPS in the vicinity of $100. According to their published notes, the rationale for the raised targets centers on a belief that the worst of the company's volume declines is now reflected in the stock price.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying UPS?

The Dividend and the Path Forward

With a dividend yield exceeding 6%, income-focused investors have a compelling defensive reason to maintain their holdings while awaiting clearer signals on volume and revenue growth. All attention is now turning to the upcoming fourth-quarter results.

The consensus forecast points toward stabilization rather than rapid expansion. Beyond the headline numbers, market participants will scrutinize management's commentary on volume trends and, crucially, its guidance for 2026. Specific insights into whether the new labor cost structure and the "Efficiency Reimagined" program are beginning to yield tangible margin improvements in the domestic business will be key.

Should company executives confirm that volume trends are stabilizing and outline a credible path back to revenue growth, the equity could attempt to challenge technical resistance near $115. Conversely, without such confirmation, share price movements are likely to remain constrained in the near term. The January 27 report will provide the essential data to determine which scenario unfolds.