Freeport-McMoRan Exceeds Forecasts with Strong Quarterly Performance

Freeport-McMoRan concluded its fiscal year on a high note, delivering fourth-quarter results that comfortably surpassed market expectations. The mining giant is navigating a recovery at its key Indonesian operations while expressing confidence in copper's long-term demand drivers. However, operational execution in the coming quarters remains a critical focus for investors.

Key Q4 2025 Financial Results:
* Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.47 (Analyst Consensus Range: $0.28–$0.29)
* Quarterly Revenue: $5.63 billion (Expected Range: $5.28–$5.42 billion)

The company's reported revenue, though 1.5% lower year-over-year, still came in above the highest estimates from analysts. The standout figure was the adjusted EPS of $0.47, which significantly outperformed the projected range.

A primary area of investor attention is the operational ramp-up at the Grasberg district in Indonesia. Operations were impacted by an incident in September, but restoration efforts are advancing. Management has outlined a plan to gradually restart production at the Kucing Liar and Big Gossan underground mines in the second quarter. The objective is for Indonesian output to return to approximately 85% of its standard capacity by the second half of 2026.

Progress has already been made, with work resuming at the Deep Mill Level Zone (DMLZ) and Big Gossan underground mines in late October. Maintaining stability in global supply hinges on these recovery milestones.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Freeport-McMoRan?

Looking ahead to the full 2026 year, Freeport-McMoRan provided a consolidated copper sales forecast of roughly 3.4 billion pounds. This represents a moderate decrease from the 3.6 billion pounds sold in the prior year. This guidance incorporates the anticipated phased recovery in Indonesia.

In contrast, the company's North American operations present a brighter near-term picture. Production in the United States is expected to increase by about 8% this year, driven primarily by improved output from its stateside assets.

Long-Term Demand Outlook Remains Robust

Beyond the immediate operational timeline, the company's leadership remains bullish on the fundamental demand for copper. The global shift toward electrification is seen as a powerful, long-term tailwind. Company analysis suggests worldwide copper demand has the potential to double by 2040.

Key growth sectors underpinning this outlook include the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, and the electric vehicle market. These technologies are materially intensive and rely heavily on copper for transmission and components.

The immediate focus for the market will be on the execution of the Indonesian recovery plan. Freeport-McMoRan is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 results on April 23. This update will be scrutinized for any changes to the schedule for restarting Grasberg mine production in Q2.