Exelixis Stock: A Market Divided by Conflicting Signals

The investment case for Exelixis is currently defined by a stark contrast: robust institutional accumulation set against a wave of insider selling. This dynamic unfolds as the biotechnology firm delivers solid financial performance and advances key clinical programs, leaving investors to weigh opposing market forces.

Operational results provide a strong foundation. For the third quarter of 2025, Exelixis reported revenue of $597.8 million. Its non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.78 surpassed the consensus estimate by $0.10. Management subsequently raised its full-year 2025 guidance to a range of $2.30–2.35 billion.

The company's balance sheet is notably robust for its sector, featuring zero debt, a return on equity of 31.37%, and a profit margin of 29.63%. Demonstrating confidence in its financial position, the board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $750 million, effective through the end of 2026. This follows a substantial return of capital to shareholders, with approximately $1.9 billion spent on buybacks since March 2023.

Key Financial and Operational Highlights:
- Q3 2025 Revenue: $597.8 million; Non-GAAP EPS: $0.78 (Estimate: $0.68)
- FY 2025 Revenue Guidance: Raised to $2.30–2.35 billion
- Share Repurchase Authorization: New $750 million program through end-2026
- Pipeline Catalyst: Planned NDA submission for zanzalintinib by end of 2025

Institutional Conviction vs. Insider Transactions

On one side, institutional investors have demonstrated significant commitment, now holding approximately 85.3% of the company's shares. Recent regulatory filings reveal strategic positioning by several major funds. AQR Capital Management increased its stake by over 10%, while Qube Research & Technologies boosted its position by more than 120% in the second quarter. AXA Investment Managers also added to its holdings, indicating sustained institutional interest in the firm's oncology-focused pipeline.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Exelixis?

Conversely, corporate insiders have been net sellers. Over the past 90 days, executives and directors disposed of a total of 245,235 shares, valued at roughly $10.5 million. A cluster of transactions in November, including sizable sales by senior leaders, has introduced near-term selling pressure and captured market attention.

Clinical Pipeline and Technical Positioning

The most significant near-term catalyst is zanzalintinib. Encouraging data from the STELLAR-303 trial in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is expected to support a New Drug Application (NDA) submission to U.S. regulators before the close of 2025. The company is concurrently advancing multiple other Phase 3 studies, including STELLAR-304 and STELLAR-311, and has four earlier-stage development projects (XL309, XB010, XB628, XB371) that could further diversify its portfolio.

From a technical perspective, the stock closed at €34.81 on Friday, marking a decline of 1.30% and sitting roughly 15.9% below its 52-week high. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 73.4 suggests the shares may be in overbought territory in the short term.

Market Outlook: A Battle of Time Horizons

The immediate trajectory appears contested. Insider sales and elevated technical indicators are likely to exert downward pressure on the share price. The medium-term view, however, will be shaped by concrete events. The planned regulatory filing for zanzalintinib and the execution of the substantial buyback program are pivotal milestones capable of redirecting market sentiment.

A successful drug approval coupled with positive continued trial results would allow the company's solid fundamentals and clean balance sheet to serve as key supports. Should clinical data disappoint, the existing selling pressure could intensify, drawing in both institutional and technically-driven sellers.