Ethereum’s Staking Metrics Flash Bullish Divergence

As 2026 gets underway, Ethereum presents a compelling divergence between its price action and underlying network fundamentals. While ETH's valuation remains approximately 30% below its 52-week peak, on-chain data is emitting strong signals of stabilization. The exodus of sellers has dried up, coinciding with substantial accumulation by major institutional players. This dynamic has market observers questioning whether these robust fundamentals are laying the groundwork for a durable price floor.

A significant shift is being driven by heavyweight institutional entities. Leading the charge is BitMine, the world's largest Ethereum treasury manager chaired by Tom Lee. The firm has established itself as an aggressive buyer, adding a further 82,560 ETH to its staking positions in early January. This move brings BitMine's total holdings to over 4.1 million Ether, representing roughly 3.4% of the entire circulating supply.

Simultaneously, a novel development is enhancing institutional appeal. The Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF distributed staking rewards directly to its shareholders for the first time on January 5th. This milestone provides regulated investors with a formal channel to participate in network fee revenue, potentially increasing the asset class's attractiveness.

Validator Exit Queue Evaporates

The most telling indicator of a structural market change stems from Ethereum's staking mechanics. The queue for validators seeking to withdraw their Ether—and potentially sell it—has collapsed to zero. This represents a staggering 99.9% decline from the September peak, when a backlog of 2.67 million ETH awaited withdrawal.

This evaporation of the exit queue suggests acute selling pressure from the staking sector has been exhausted for now. Conversely, the entry queue for new validators is replenishing, with 1.3 million ETH waiting to be staked. This level of interest in locking up coins has reached its highest point since mid-November, indicating that large holders are again willing to commit to long-term positions rather than seek short-term liquidity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?

Strong Fundamentals Meet Fragmented Value

A central paradox remains the disconnect between robust network usage and subdued price performance. Ethereum concluded 2025 with record figures for daily transactions and active addresses. The stablecoin market operating on its blockchain also expanded by 43% to $181 billion.

The core issue, however, is value capture. The success of Layer-2 scaling solutions like Base is diverting fee revenue and activity away from the main chain. Notably, Base generated more fees over the past 30 days than the Ethereum Mainnet itself. This trend weakens the network's "burn mechanism," which destroys ETH and counteracts inflation. With reduced burn activity, net supply inflation rises. Analysts identify this fragmentation as the primary reason for ETH's lack of price momentum relative to other digital assets.

Currently trading at $3,268.20, Ether has recovered from its 52-week low near $2,765 but continues to lag behind the broader market's performance.

The development roadmap for the year ahead is now sharply focused on "Unification"—the technical integration of these fragmented Layer-2 ecosystems. Success in reconsolidating liquidity and streamlining the user experience could allow the massive institutional accumulation by entities like BitMine and ETF providers to fully translate into upward price pressure.