Ethereum Price Target Slashed as ETF Outflows Escalate and Major Bank Adjusts View

ETF Outflows Create Broad Fallout

A key driver of the current weakness remains dwindling interest from institutional buyers. On February 12, investors pulled a net $113 million from U.S. spot ETFs, marking the second consecutive day of substantial withdrawals.

This retreat was broad-based, touching all major players from Fidelity to BlackRock and Grayscale. Since peaking in August 2025, the combined assets under management for these funds have eroded by roughly 43%, shrinking to about $13 billion, according to CoinGlass data.

Analysts Respond by Reassessing the Outlook

Market researchers at Standard Chartered have moved quickly to rethink their projections. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital-asset research at the bank, pushed his forecast lower, now suggesting Ethereum’s price floor may sit near $1,400—a notable drop from the current level around $1,960.

Kendrick also slashed the forecast for year-end 2026. The previous optimistic target of $7,500 has been replaced with a new aim of $4,000. The revisions cited the ETF outflows as well as a challenging macro backdrop, with anticipated U.S. inflation conditions and the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts contributing to a tougher outlook—cuts, he argues, are unlikely before mid-year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ethereum?

Structural Shifts Within the Market

Outside of ETF flows, other signals point to shifts in the market’s composition. BlackRock’s tokenized BUIDL fund is restructuring its exposure, broadening its blockchain exposure and lowering Ethereum’s weight to roughly 35% in favor of other networks such as Avalanche and Polygon.

In parallel, large holders have pulled back recently. Market data indicate that between February 3 and February 12, around 160,000 ETH were sold.

Longer-Term View Remains Intact for Some Institutions

Despite the near-term bearish mood, Standard Chartered maintains a longer horizon. The bank expects the crypto sector to recover after forming a bottom in 2026 and continues to hold to its ambitious target of $40,000 for 2030, emphasizing the enduring relevance of blockchain technology in their analysis.

Overall, the combination of ETF outflows, shifting fund strategies, and macro headwinds has driven a notable downward revision for Ethereum in the near term, while a subset of institutions continues to project a substantial recovery path further out.