Energy Fuels Stock Gains Momentum from Dual Growth Engines

Energy Fuels Inc. is capturing significant market attention, propelled by two powerful and distinct growth narratives. The company is advancing a concrete expansion plan for its rare earth elements business while simultaneously being re-categorized by investors as a potential beneficiary of the burgeoning "AI Energy Trade." This reassessment is driven by a recently published bankable feasibility study for a key facility and the growing link between artificial intelligence's massive power demand and nuclear energy.

A fresh investment theme is gaining traction, with market participants increasingly grouping Energy Fuels within the "AI Energy Trade." The core premise is the surging electricity demand from AI data centers, which requires reliable, around-the-clock baseload power—a role where nuclear energy is seen as a prime solution. This reclassification has several market implications:

• Expanded Investor Base: Technology-focused funds with energy mandates are showing greater interest in the stock.
• Sector Correlation: The equity is now moving more closely in line with other nuclear and infrastructure players, such as GE Vernova.
• Demand Foundation: Forecasts suggesting U.S. electricity demand could rise by approximately 25% by 2030 bolster the long-term investment case for domestic uranium suppliers.

Consequently, the stock's valuation is now being influenced not just by commodity prices, but also by this structural, technology-driven growth story.

Rare Earths Expansion: Detailed Plans from White Mesa

The most concrete driver for the company's re-rating is the Phase 2 Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for its White Mesa Mill in Utah, released in mid-January. This study provides a detailed roadmap for Energy Fuels to become a major producer of separated rare earth oxides.

Key data points from the BFS include:

• Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): Approximately $410 million, which is lower than previous market expectations.
• Projected EBITDA: An average of about $311 million per year over the first 15 years of the Phase 2 circuit alone.
• Production Capacity: Over 6,000 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide annually, plus significant quantities of dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb).
• Combined Project Economics: When integrated with the potential Vara Mada project, the net present value (NPV) is estimated at roughly $3.7 billion, with potential annual EBITDA reaching up to $765 million.

This strategic move positions the company beyond its uranium roots, establishing it as a future building block in the Western supply chain for critical magnetic materials used in electric vehicles and wind turbines.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Energy Fuels?

Core Uranium Operations Exceed Targets

Providing a solid financial foundation, the company's traditional uranium segment continues to perform strongly. Confirmed data for 2025 shows production exceeded its own targets.

• Combined production from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal, and Pandora mines totaled more than 1.6 million pounds of uranium—about 11% above the high end of its guidance.
• The White Mesa Mill produced over 1 million pounds of finished uranium.
• An estimated 360,000 pounds were sold in the fourth quarter of 2025.

This operational strength is crucial for capitalizing on current uranium prices and for funding the planned rare earths expansion.

Valuation Outlook and Key Risks

Despite these operational advances, valuation remains a central topic of debate. In early January, analyst commentary noted the shares were trading at a price-to-sales multiple above 37. This premium suggests the market is assigning a high probability to the successful execution of the rare earths expansion plan.

The investment thesis now hinges on the tension between two factors:

• Execution Risk: The $410 million expansion must be financed and implemented flawlessly.
• Earnings Potential: The prospect of substantial future EBITDA contributions from White Mesa and Vara Mada, further supported by the AI-driven nuclear narrative.

The upward trend in the share price since mid-January indicates investors are currently weighting the growth potential from rare earths and AI-related nuclear demand more heavily than valuation concerns. In the near term, news regarding project financing and offtake agreements will likely be key catalysts. Meanwhile, the robust uranium production provides a valuation floor, and the planned White Mesa Mill expansion stands as the primary lever for future growth.