Energy Fuels Charts a Multi-Billion Dollar Path in Rare Earths

A recently published feasibility study from Energy Fuels has outlined a highly profitable expansion plan, sending its shares higher and underscoring the company's strategic ambition. Released on January 15, 2026, the study for the Phase 2 expansion at its White Mesa Mill in Utah forecasts a post-tax net present value of $1.9 billion and an impressive internal rate of return of 33%. The market responded positively to the news, with the stock advancing more than 3%.

The expansion is a key component of a broader strategy to establish a U.S.-centric rare earth element (REE) supply chain, a direct challenge to China's current dominance in this critical sector. This move has garnered favorable attention from analysts, with a majority issuing "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings on the stock. The company is positioning itself as a foundational piece in securing a non-Chinese source of materials essential for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defense technologies.

This Utah project is part of a series of positive developments. In early January 2026, Energy Fuels presented a separate feasibility study for its Vara Mada project in Madagascar, which carries a net present value of $1.8 billion. Furthermore, in late December 2025, the company exceeded its uranium production targets, highlighting its operational strength across multiple fuel cycles.

Phase 2 Expansion: A Six-Fold Capacity Increase

The Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) details a substantial production ramp-up. For a capital investment of $410 million, the plan is to boost annual neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide output from the current 1,000 tonnes to over 6,000 tonnes. The expansion also includes plans for the annual production of 240 tonnes of dysprosium and 66 tonnes of terbium. These heavy rare earths are crucial for high-performance permanent magnets.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Energy Fuels?

According to the study, the Phase 2 facility alone is projected to generate average annual EBITDA of $311 million over its first 15 years of operation. Energy Fuels emphasizes that this plan would place it among the global producers with the lowest operating and capital cost structures for REE oxide production. Regulatory approvals are anticipated by mid-2027, with commissioning targeted for the first quarter of 2029.

Upcoming Catalysts and Market Performance

Investors are now looking ahead to several key milestones in 2026. Final investment decisions for both the Vara Mada project and the Donald project are pending and are considered potential near-term catalysts for the share price. The company's next quarterly report is scheduled for release around March 23, 2026.

From a technical perspective, the stock has demonstrated sustained upward momentum into mid-January, with its price trading notably above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This trend reflects growing market confidence in the company's dual-track strategy of expanding its rare earths business while maintaining its core uranium production.