Energy Fuels: A Strategic Powerhouse in Uranium and Rare Earths

Investor focus is intensifying on Energy Fuels, driven by a series of significant operational and strategic developments. The uranium and rare earth elements producer has solidified the economic case for a key asset, now named the Vara Mada project, with an updated feasibility study released on January 8, 2026.

The study outlines a project of considerable magnitude and longevity. Vara Mada is projected to yield a net present value of $1.8 billion. At full operational capacity, the mine is forecast to generate annual EBITDA exceeding $500 million. Its initial modeled mine life stands at 38 years, with clear potential for extension through additional drilling programs.

Key financial and operational metrics from the study include:

• Net Present Value (NPV): $1.8 billion
• Initial Mine Life: 38 years (with extension potential)
• Pre-FID Capital Expenditure (CAPEX): $121 million
• Phase 1 CAPEX: $769 million to establish an annual capacity of 13 million tons
• Phase 2 CAPEX: An additional $142 million to double capacity to 25 million tons annually

Strong Uranium Performance and Outlook

Concurrently, Energy Fuels has demonstrated robust performance in its core uranium business. The company exceeded its 2025 production and sales guidance, delivering over one million pounds of finished uranium. Looking ahead to 2026, management has guided for deliveries of 780,000 to 880,000 pounds of U3O8 under existing long-term contracts.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Energy Fuels?

Building an Integrated Rare Earths Strategy

The Vara Mada project is central to Energy Fuels' strategy to become a major integrated supplier of rare earth elements. The company plans to process monazite concentrates from Madagascar at its White Mesa Mill in Utah—the sole fully licensed and operational conventional uranium processing facility in the United States.

A planned Phase 2 expansion at White Mesa, anticipated by late 2028, is set to dramatically increase processing scale. This upgrade would enable the annual processing of 60,000 tons of monazite concentrate, yielding approximately 6,000 tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, 275 tons of dysprosium oxide, and 80 tons of terbium oxide.

CEO Mark S. Chalmers highlighted the project's strategic importance, stating, "Vara Mada is a unique, multi-generational project with the potential to positively alter the dynamics of global rare earth and critical mineral supply chains."

Market Analysts Offer Divergent Views

Despite the strong project economics, analyst opinions on the stock are mixed. Roth MKM maintains a Sell rating, citing concerns over valuation. However, the consensus average price target among covering analysts is $23.06, suggesting significant upside from current trading levels. Some investor caution stems from a $700 million convertible notes offering completed in October 2025. While the capital provides funding for project development, it has also raised concerns about potential shareholder dilution.