Dominion Energy: Navigating a Landscape of Conflicting Cues

Investors in Dominion Energy are currently weighing a series of opposing developments. The utility giant recently secured key regulatory approvals, yet faces a tempered outlook from one major Wall Street firm alongside a potential increase in share supply. This confluence of events presents a complex picture for the stock's near-term trajectory.

The company's third-quarter 2025 results delivered a mixed message. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.06, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.02. However, revenue of $4.53 billion fell short of the expected $4.71 billion. For the full fiscal year, management has provided EPS guidance in the range of $3.33 to $3.48, with analysts projecting approximately $3.39.

The share price has shown modest movement, gaining 2.1% over the past three months but underperforming the S&P 500's 6.5% advance. Year-to-date, the stock is up 12.1%, trailing the broader index's 16.1% increase. Trading within a 52-week range of $48.07 to $62.87, the equity lacks a decisive directional signal.

Divergent Analyst Views and Capital Strategy

A recent analyst action introduced a note of caution. JPMorgan revised its price target downward from $62 to $59, maintaining an "Underweight" rating on the shares. This stands in contrast to the broader analyst consensus, which largely suggests a "Hold." The average price target from 12 analysts tracked by MarketBeat sits at $64.22, while a 15-analyst average compiled by GuruFocus is $63.70.

Simultaneously, Dominion has expanded its "at-the-market" (ATM) equity program, authorizing the sale of up to $1.8 billion in new shares. This mechanism provides financial flexibility for the company but could exert downward pressure on the stock price if significant volumes are sold into the market.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Dominion Energy?

Regulatory Progress and Shareholder Returns

On a positive note, the company received favorable regulatory decisions in late November. These included approvals from the Biennial Review process and a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCN) for the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center. The rulings granted a slight increase in the allowed return on equity (ROE) and authorized a new large customer class, supporting the construction and operation of the Chesterfield facility.

For income-focused investors, the dividend remains a key attraction. The quarterly payout of $0.6675 per share is payable on December 20 to shareholders of record as of December 5. This translates to an annualized dividend of $2.67 and a yield of approximately 4.6%, based on current pricing. The payout ratio is estimated at around 90.8%.

Ownership of the company is predominantly institutional, with such investors holding about 73% of the outstanding shares. Some funds, including Ossiam, reported substantial purchases during the second quarter.

Looking Ahead

In the short term, the stock's momentum is likely to be influenced by further analyst revisions and the execution of the ATM share sale program. The upcoming dividend payment and the recent regulatory green lights provide concrete, date-specific events for the market to digest. The overall investment thesis for Dominion Energy now balances solid operational results and regulatory advancements against the prospect of share dilution and a cautious stance from some analysts.