Diverging Views Emerge on Expand Energy’s Trajectory

Shares of U.S. natural gas producer Expand Energy ended the week on stable ground, following a period of significant gains fueled by a historic surge in commodity prices. The company, positioned as the sector's largest producer, capitalized on severe winter conditions, but this has led to a split in opinion among major financial institutions regarding its future path.

An intense cold snap across the United States served as the catalyst for a dramatic rally in natural gas markets. U.S. Natural Gas Futures recorded an unprecedented weekly jump of more than 65%, marking the largest such increase on record. This wholesale price boom provided direct momentum to Expand Energy's equity, which advanced approximately 10% over the previous week.

In response to these market movements, analyst firms have issued updated assessments. Roth Capital adjusted its position on Friday, raising its price target modestly from $106 to $109. The firm maintained a "Neutral" stance on the stock. Conversely, analysts at Goldman Sachs made a slight downward revision to their target on Thursday, moving from $132 to $130. Despite this adjustment, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "Buy" recommendation for Expand Energy.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Expand Energy?

Evaluating Sustainability and Fundamentals

For investors, the central question now revolves around the durability of the current price environment. The arctic blast represents a short-term meteorological event. While it substantially drew down national storage inventories, reserves remain above the five-year average. Consequently, market attention is pivoting back to the company's underlying business fundamentals.

Earnings projections for Expand Energy reflect the optimistic sentiment generated by elevated gas prices. Market experts are forecasting fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) to reach $1.70. This figure would represent a growth of over 200% compared to the same period in the prior year. The definitive test for the merged entity will come with the official release of these quarterly results, which are anticipated to clarify its true profit-generating capacity within a high-price market structure.