DexCom Charts a New Course Under Fresh Leadership

The appointment of Jake Leach as the new CEO at DexCom comes with a significant financial preview: robust preliminary figures for 2025 and what appears to be a conservative outlook for 2026. This leadership transition, combined with imminent product launches and global growth ambitions, has divided analyst opinion and reignited discussions about market share in the competitive continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sector. The central challenge for Leach will be balancing sustained growth with margin stability.

The company released unaudited preliminary revenue results for both the fourth quarter and the full 2025 fiscal year, indicating a strong finish. Key figures include:
- Q4 2025 Preliminary Revenue: Approximately $1.26 billion, representing a 13% increase over Q4 2024. U.S. sales grew 11%, while international revenue surged 18%.
- Full-Year 2025 Preliminary Revenue: Roughly $4.662 billion, a 16% year-over-year gain.
- 2026 Revenue Target: A range of $5.16 to $5.25 billion, implying growth of 11% to 13% over the preliminary 2025 results.
- Margin Outlook (non-GAAP): For 2026, the company anticipates a gross margin of 63–64% and an operating margin of 22–23%. This compares to an estimated gross margin of ~61% and an operating margin of ~20–21% for 2025.

Management highlighted several specific growth drivers, including the pharmacy launch of the G7 15 Day system in early January, broader adoption of the Stelo platform, increasing CGM awareness, and continued international expansion.

A Divided Analyst Community and Competitive Pressures

Market experts have responded with mixed signals, reflecting ongoing debates about valuation and competitive threats. Barclays downgraded the stock from Equalweight to Underweight, citing competitive concerns—specifically the momentum of Abbott's Freestyle Libre—and set a price target of $71. Other firms maintained a more cautious or optimistic stance:
- Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an Overweight rating with a $75 target, noting the prudent guidance.
- Leerink Partners raised its price target to $92, pointing to improved G7 data.
- Adjustments from Piper Sandler, Bernstein, and Mizuho further illustrate the split consensus: solid operational execution is being weighed against persistent competitive pressure and valuation questions.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying DexCom?

In essence, while DexCom's strategy explicitly aims for simultaneous growth and margin improvement through new products and global reach, analysts remain divided. Shifts in CGM market share and valuation risks are seen as potential limiters on the stock's upside.
- The shares currently trade at €60.11, placing them nearly 31% below their 52-week high and down approximately 27% over a 12-month period.

Key Upcoming Catalysts and Considerations

DexCom is scheduled to report its audited Q4 and full-year 2025 results after market close on February 12, 2026, followed by a conference call. Investors should focus on:
- Confirmation of the preliminary figures and the 2026 guidance, or any adjustments thereto.
- Detailed commentary on the market penetration of the G7 15 Day system and the rollout pace for Stelo.
- The timeline and specific goals for the next-generation G8 sensor, alongside updates on insurance coverage and international strategy.

In summary, Jake Leach begins his tenure with a solid financial foundation and a clear strategic plan, with the key 2026 benchmarks already established. Whether this is sufficient to fully alleviate analyst skepticism regarding competitive risks and valuation will likely become clearer following the February 12th reporting.