CureVac’s Defining Moment: Shareholders to Decide on BioNTech Takeover

The future of Tübingen-based biotech firm CureVac hangs in the balance as shareholders prepare for a pivotal extraordinary general meeting this Monday. Far more than a procedural formality, the vote will determine whether the company maintains its independence or proceeds with its planned acquisition by Mainz vaccine pioneer BioNTech. With investors awaiting the outcome, the central question remains whether the deal will proceed smoothly or face last-minute complications.

Currently, CureVac shares are trading more like an arbitrage instrument than a typical growth stock. The stock price is confined to a narrow range that mirrors the terms of BioNTech's public share exchange offer. Friday's closing price of €4.35, representing a weekly decline of approximately 3.6%, fits within this pattern as markets price in the transaction's likelihood of completion.

Major institutional investors have already established their positions, with current valuations suggesting strong market confidence in the deal's success. However, shareholder approval on Monday serves as the essential catalyst to advance the process to its next stage.

Understanding BioNTech's Proposal

At the heart of the current situation is the public exchange offer initiated in October, which values CureVac shares at approximately $5.46. Key details for investors include:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying CureVac?

• Compensation Structure: Payment will be made in BioNTech American Depositary Shares (ADS).
• Acceptance Window: The tender offer period currently extends through December 3, 2025.
• Critical Threshold: A minimum of 80% of outstanding shares must be tendered, though BioNTech retains the option to lower this requirement to 75%.

Monday's Crucial Vote

Market analysts view Monday's meeting as the first major test for the transaction's viability. A favorable shareholder vote on the necessary structural measures would signal strong confidence that the required acceptance rate will be achieved by December. Experts consider this step fundamental to transferring CureVac's mRNA technology platform into a more financially robust entity.

Despite the prevailing optimism, significant risks persist. Market observers are closely monitoring two critical factors: whether the demanding 80% participation threshold can actually be reached, and if shareholder approval will be followed by final regulatory clearance from antitrust authorities.

The situation presents a binary outcome. If all proceeds according to plan, CureVac will cease to exist as an independent listed company. Should shareholder support falter or the tender threshold remain unmet, substantial volatility could ensue. Without the safety net of BioNTech's offer, the shares might struggle to find support. Monday's proceedings will provide the first concrete indication of which direction this corporate saga will ultimately take.