Countdown to Key Vote as Coeur Mining Advances New Gold Merger

Coeur Mining has entered a pivotal phase in its planned takeover of New Gold, with investors reacting to the approaching vote. The deal, valued at about $7 billion, aims to establish a leading North American heavyweight in the precious metals sector.

The annual meetings for Coeur Mining and New Gold are scheduled for January 27 at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. New Gold shareholders must submit their voting proxies by January 23.

Two major hurdles stand in the way of completion:
- A two-thirds majority at New Gold, and
- Approval by Coeur shareholders for the equity issuance and the charter amendment.

Under the terms negotiated in November, the transaction involves a stock swap:
- Each New Gold share will exchange for 0.4959 Coeur common shares.
- Upon closing, Coeur shareholders would own about 62% of the combined entity, while New Gold holders would hold around 38%.

New Gold’s board has unanimously recommended that shareholders vote in favor. Richard O’Brien, chair of New Gold’s board, described the merger as creating a “unique North American precious metals company.”

Regulatory Progress

Late December marked a key regulatory milestone. The transaction received an Advance Ruling Certificate from the Commissioner of Competition under Canada’s Competition Act, signaling the completion of a central antitrust review and reducing a major uncertainty around the deal.

The merger agreement also includes mutual break fees if the transaction fails under certain conditions:
- Coeur would owe approximately $414 million.
- New Gold would owe roughly $255 million.

These figures emphasize the binding nature the parties have placed on the combination.

The Combined Company

The merger is intended to position Coeur/New Gold among the top players in the global precious metals landscape. For 2026, the following targets are anticipated:

• Production
• About 1.25 million gold-equivalent ounces
• Including 20 million ounces of silver and 900,000 ounces of gold

• Additional byproduct: 100 million pounds of copper

• EBITDA: roughly $3.0 billion

  Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coeur Mining?

• Free cash flow: about $2.0 billion

• Market standing: within the Top 10 global precious metals producers; among the Top 5 silver producers

Strategically, the combined group will rely on seven North American mines, with more than 80% of revenue anticipated to come from the United States and Canada. This geographic focus is expected to mitigate political and regulatory risks relative to peers with heavier exposure in emerging markets.

Co-Founder and CEO Mitchell J. Krebs notes a significant improvement in the company’s financial profile thanks to the deal: two years ago, annual EBITDA stood at $142 million and free cash flow was negative around $297 million. The integration with New Gold is expected to fundamentally enhance these metrics.

Stock Performance and Analyst View

2015/2025 was a notably strong year for Coeur Mining’s stock, which saw a sharp rally. Over the past year, the shares surged about 212%, finishing the year at $17.83, well above the 52-week low of $4.58.

Analyst sentiment remains positive overall, though some skepticism has emerged after the run-up:
- Coverage: 11 analysts
- Recommendations over the last 12 months: 8 Buys and 3 Holds
- Average rating: Moderate Buy

Cantor Fitzgerald recently downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral, arguing that the substantial rally has priced in much of the upside and that the current valuation is “fully/fairly priced.”

Current Volatility and Trading Range

On January 2, the stock opened at $18.50 and closed at $17.55, down about 5% on the session, with volume around 18 million shares. The day’s range was wide, fluctuating between $16.94 and $18.58. The heightened volatility reflects investor positioning ahead of the vote and the market’s response to potential deal completion, in a period of recent swings in metal prices.

Outlook and Next Dates

Key milestones in the near term are as follows:

• January 23: Deadline for New Gold shareholders to cast their votes
• January 27: Joint annual meetings of Coeur Mining and New Gold
• First half of 2026: Expected close of the transaction, contingent on favorable approvals from both sets of shareholders

Upon closing, New Gold CEO Patrick Godin and another New Gold board member are anticipated to join Coeur’s board, cementing New Gold’s governance influence. The crucial question for the stock in the coming months will be whether the combined company can visibly deliver the targeted production and cash-flow goals in the current year.