Could ASML Shares Get an AI-Driven Lift?

A significant shift appears to be underway for the Dutch chip equipment giant, ASML. Recent analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that soaring investments in artificial intelligence could potentially boost the EUV monopolist's revenue by a substantial 59 percent. Concurrently, for the first time, ASML has displaced the oil major Shell as the most-held stock among Dutch retail investors. Is a major surge on the horizon, or is this optimism already reflected in the share price?

Adding a tangible sentiment indicator to the analytical forecasts, the Dutch Central Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank, has revealed a notable milestone. In the third quarter of 2025, ASML unseated Royal Dutch Shell as the top equity holding in the portfolios of Dutch households. This change in leadership signals growing confidence among domestic investors in the long-term prospects of the chip equipment manufacturer.

This transition carries more than just symbolic weight. It indicates that even conservative retail investors are willing to exchange the traditional energy titan for the technology champion—a clear sign of the deepening conviction in the semiconductor sector's sustained growth potential.

Asian Outreach and Strategic Moves

The strategic importance of the Asian market is being emphasized by CEO Christophe Fouquet through direct action. Between November 12th and 17th, he held high-level discussions in South Korea with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. These two companies are among the world's largest memory chip manufacturers and are key clients for ASML's advanced lithography systems.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML?

Aligning technology roadmaps with these industry leaders is considered crucial for the development of upcoming product generations in the AI and memory sectors. Furthermore, ASML is scheduled to present at major investor conferences, including the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore and the ING Benelux Conference in Brussels towards the end of November. The market is now keenly awaiting the complete financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025, which are expected in January 2026.

Goldman Sachs Lays Out the AI Revenue Case

The bull-case scenario presented by the US investment bank is compelling. Analysts highlight ASML's unique monopoly in producing EUV lithography machines—the highly complex systems without which no modern AI chip can be manufactured. Whether for logic, memory, or analog chips, all advanced semiconductors for AI applications rely on ASML's technology.

The calculation is both straightforward and impressive: If AI demand explodes as projected by Goldman Sachs, ASML could surpass the midpoint of its own 2030 revenue targets by approximately 59 percent. For context, the company is already targeting a revenue growth of about 15 percent for the full year 2025, alongside a gross margin of around 52 percent.