Coinbase Shares Face Mounting Pressure Ahead of Earnings

As Coinbase Global, Inc. prepares to release its quarterly financial results, investor scrutiny is intensifying. The cryptocurrency exchange's stock has suffered a significant decline since the start of the year, prompting several analyst firms to revise their outlooks downward. This pressure persists even as Bitcoin's price shows relative stability, with a key market metric suggesting large U.S. investors are currently on the sidelines.

The company continues to navigate a complex legal landscape. On one hand, Coinbase recently faced a setback in Nevada, where a court denied an emergency motion related to prediction markets. Conversely, a potentially positive signal emerged at the federal level. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) withdrew a prior proposal to ban certain event contracts. Market observers interpret this as a sign that regulators may adopt a more nuanced approach toward derivative crypto products, which could provide medium-term relief for the industry.

Analyst Sentiment Cools Amid Price Weakness

In the immediate run-up to the fourth-quarter earnings report, analysts at BTIG responded to the stock's recent poor performance. The firm reduced its price target from $420 to $340, while maintaining its "Buy" rating. This adjustment is rooted in fundamental expectations, specifically the anticipation of weaker transaction volumes for the last quarter.

The decision to keep a positive recommendation despite the lower target is viewed by some market watchers as an indication that the expected weakness may already be priced into the stock. Currently trading at €135.74, Coinbase shares have shed more than 36% of their value in the past 30 days alone. The stock's recent touch of a 52-week low underscores the palpable nervousness among shareholders.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coinbase?

The "Coinbase Premium Gap" Flashes a Warning

An analysis of market structure offers a potential explanation for the current weakness. The "Coinbase Premium Gap," a metric measuring the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro compared to the Binance exchange, has plunged deep into negative territory, registering a value of -167.8.

A negative reading is frequently interpreted as a signal that buying interest from institutional U.S. investors is cooling relative to global demand. This observation aligns with trends in the broader ETF sector, where recent fund flows have presented a mixed picture. It appears U.S.-based funds are currently focused more on risk reduction than on aggressive accumulation.

All eyes are now on February 12, 2026, when Coinbase will unveil its quarterly results. The upcoming financial report will reveal whether the substantial sell-off in recent weeks was fundamentally justified or if the market has priced in excessive pessimism ahead of the announcement.