Cash Pile Versus Efficiency Debate in IonQ and D-Wave Stock Showdown

A genuine market thriller has unfolded over the past 48 hours in the quantum equities space. IonQ’s mood swung faster than a qubit. In early February, a scathing report from Wolfpack Research sparked outright panic selling, alleging inflated revenues and opaque Pentagon funding links. The stock tumbled hard as a result.

Then came a game-changing update on February 11–12: Norges Bank, the influential Norwegian sovereign fund, disclosed a position worth about $200 million. That sizable vote of confidence sparked a relief rally. By Friday, February 13, IonQ shares jumped 9.2% to close at $34.18, with the market betting on the company’s robust war chest and pushing back against the shorts’ allegations.

In the wake of this drama, D-Wave Quantum also rode the tide. Its shares rose 4.9% on Friday to $19.74. While the coverage hasn’t reached the same fever pitch as IonQ, D-Wave benefited from the broader positive sentiment around its ongoing contract extension with a Fortune-100 customer, positioning the company as the “cleaner,” though pricier, bet on pure quantum optimization.

Both stocks remain highly volatile and trade well below their 52-week highs, a reflection of the broader risk-off rotation that has characterized early 2026. Yet there are telling divergences in their price dynamics when viewed side by side.

• IonQ (price: 34.18 USD) is down roughly 25% to 28% year-to-date. From a chart perspective, the stock is fighting to reclaim the 50-day moving average. The looming Death Cross—where the 50-day line would cross below the 200-day line—hovers as a potential risk. Still, Friday’s strong reversal hints at the psychological support around $30 acting as a substantial floor.
• D-Wave Quantum (price: 19.74 USD) has fallen about 24% year-to-date, retracting from October 2025 highs near $45. The February session showed relative resilience. The stock is now forming a base between $18 and $20. RSI has cooled to a neutral range of 45–50, leaving room for a breakout should earnings surprise on the upside.

Key snapshot comparisons:

Cash Burn or Profitability?

A look at the balance sheet underscores a David-versus-Goliath dynamic, especially on liquidity.

• IonQ: The cash fortress is IonQ’s primary shield against shorts. After a $2 billion equity raise in October 2025, the company sits on roughly $3.5 billion in liquidity. For a quantum business not yet profitable, that kind of cash reserve is extraordinary, enabling ongoing operations for years without further shareholder dilution. IonQ’s Q3 2025 revenue reached a record $39.9 million, up 222% year over year, driven by hardware sales and government contracts.
• D-Wave: A lean, software-centric model. Q3 2025 revenue stood at $3.7 million, up 100% year over year—a fraction of IonQ’s scale. Nonetheless, D-Wave boasts superior gross margins, ranging from 71.4% to 82.8% depending on calculation methods, reflecting its focus on cloud-based Quantum-as-a-Service. After option exercises, cash reserves stood at $836 million, enough for operating flexibility but still only about a quarter of IonQ’s liquidity.

Wall Street’s Take

Analysts tread carefully, weighing the technology’s potential against current valuations.

• IonQ: The prevailing stance is a Moderate Buy. Firms like Needham and Benchmark defended the stock after the Wolfpack report and treated Norges Bank’s entry as validation of IonQ’s long-term strategy. Price targets cluster around $75, signaling more than 100% upside from the current level. Opinions have become more varied, however, given the ongoing controversy surrounding the Wolfpack allegations.
• D-Wave: The mood improved on the back of solid Q3 results. TD Cowen and Roth MKM emphasized the company’s enterprise traction and relevance for large customers. The average price target sits near $38, implying roughly 90% upside from the Friday close.

Chart Perspective: The Path of Least Resistance

As traders prepare for upcoming quarterly results, key pivot points to monitor include:

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS):
• Support: $18.45 (February lows) and $17.20
• Resistance: $20.10 (near-term ceiling) and $24.80 (200-day moving average)

• Scenario: A daily close above $20.10 could trigger a quick move toward $25 via a gap-fill.

• IonQ (IONQ):

• Support: $30.00 (critical floor) and $28.50
• Resistance: $35.50 (Friday’s high) and $40.00 (psychological/technical hurdle)
• Scenario: A breakout beyond $35.50 would help neutralize the downtrend sparked by the short-seller episode.

Verdict: Which Side Wins the Race?

Two pivotal dates loom: IonQ reports numbers on February 25, followed by D-Wave on February 26.

• Scenario A: The Breakthrough (IonQ)
  If IonQ’s management delivers transparent data that dispels the earmark allegations and simultaneously confirms 2026 revenue guidance above $150 million, the stock could spark a sharp short squeeze. Norges Bank’s purchases, coupled with a high short-interest backdrop, create a powder keg just waiting for a spark.
• Scenario B: The Efficiency Victory (D-Wave)
  D-Wave must demonstrate that its $10 million deal with a Fortune-100 client yields recurring revenue. A favorable guidance beat-and-raise, paired with sustained high gross margins, would help justify its lofty valuation and could siphon capital away from IonQ.

The February 2026 Scorecard

IonQ (78/100)
- Strengths: Massive liquidity (about $3.5 billion cash), institutional backing (Norges Bank), rapid revenue growth ( +222% ).
- Weaknesses: Active short-seller campaign, regulatory uncertainty, lower gross margins.
- Conclusion: A “Substance Giant.” The sizable cash cushion relative to market cap provides downside protection, assuming the charges are not substantiated.

D-Wave Quantum (72/100)
- Strengths: Industry-leading gross margins (>70%), proven enterprise use cases, less headline risk.
- Weaknesses: Very high valuation (price-to-sales well over 300x), relatively small absolute revenue base.
- Conclusion: A “Pure Speculation.” It offers a cleaner exposure to quantum optimization but trades at a premium requiring near-flawless execution.

Winner: IonQ holds the tactical edge today. The Norges Bank entry signals that smart money is treating the Wolfpack short-seller concerns as an opportunity, and IonQ’s enormous cash position furnishes it with greater resilience through volatile periods.