Carlyle’s High-Stakes Gamble: Navigating Sanctions for a $22 Billion Prize

While geopolitical tensions typically send investors scrambling for cover, The Carlyle Group appears to be moving in the opposite direction. The private equity titan is contemplating a bold strategic play, exploring the acquisition of international assets from Lukoil, the Russian oil giant currently operating under sanctions. This daring maneuver raises questions about whether such ambition can overshadow the firm’s recent disappointing financial performance.

Beneath the headlines of potential acquisitions lies a more sobering financial reality. Carlyle’s quarterly report released October 31, 2025, revealed significant headwinds. Revenue plummeted to $332.7 million, while net income contracted dramatically to just $0.9 million. These figures fell substantially short of analyst expectations, which had projected $848.51 million in revenue.

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