Cardano’s Contrarian Bet: Major Investors Accumulate Amid Market Weakness

While Cardano's price action reflects a challenging technical environment, a significant divergence is emerging in investor behavior. On-chain data reveals that large-scale holders are actively accumulating the cryptocurrency, positioning themselves against prevailing short-term sentiment and in anticipation of a key institutional development.

Despite ADA trading near crucial support levels, addresses holding substantial balances have been net buyers. Over the past three weeks, these entities have acquired approximately 210 million ADA, valued at around $76 million. This accumulation occurred predominantly within the current price range, suggesting that sophisticated investors view the dip as a strategic entry point. Furthermore, selling pressure from long-term holders has noticeably eased, indicating underlying conviction in the asset's fundamentals.

This activity stands in stark contrast to the signals from the derivatives market. On the BitMEX platform, trading volume for Cardano futures contracts surged by over one million percent within 24 hours, exceeding $624 million. However, funding rates remain negative. Market analysts interpret this anomaly as a sign that speculative traders are either betting on further price declines or hedging their portfolios against downside risk.

Technical Pressure and a Key Catalyst

From a chart perspective, Cardano faces immediate headwinds. The digital asset has struggled to reclaim its 50-day moving average near $0.39 and is currently testing support around $0.36. A decisive break below this level could open the path toward the December lows near $0.32. The price remains nearly 58% below its 52-week high, underscoring the extent of the recent downturn.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Cardano?

The primary source of optimism for large investors appears to be a forthcoming institutional milestone. The CME Group has announced plans to launch Cardano futures contracts on February 9, 2026, pending regulatory approval. Such a listing is widely seen as a gateway for deeper institutional capital and a potential precursor to exchange-traded fund (ETF) products. Concurrently, the Cardano ecosystem continues to develop through new DeFi integrations and infrastructure funding, even as regulatory uncertainties in the U.S.—a point of criticism from founder Charles Hoskinson—persist as an overhang.

The Stalemate and Path Forward

Cardano is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term technical selling pressure and long-term strategic accumulation. The negative funding rates and bearish chart structure advocate for caution. Yet, the sustained buying from major addresses tells a different story about the longer-term outlook.

The upcoming weeks may be defined by whether bullish investors can muster enough momentum to reclaim the $0.41 level ahead of the anticipated CME listing. A successful breach could help invalidate the current bearish technical scenario, potentially aligning the price action with the accumulation pattern of its largest holders.