BYD’s Record Deliveries Mask a Shifting Domestic Landscape

The latest vehicle delivery figures from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) titan BYD present a complex picture for investors. While November 2025 saw the company achieve its highest monthly sales volume of the year, a deeper analysis reveals significant underlying pressures. This marks the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in total deliveries. As the company's shares traded around €10.80 on Monday, experiencing slight downward pressure, a central question emerges: can an aggressive overseas push sufficiently offset an apparent saturation in its core domestic market?

BYD reported sales of 480,186 New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) for November 2025. This represents an 8.7% increase from October and a monthly record for the year. However, compared to November 2024, total volume contracted by approximately 5.3%, highlighting a persistent challenge.

The breakdown by powertrain and market reveals starkly different stories:

• Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) were a clear bright spot, with sales advancing 19.93% to 237,540 units.
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) faced a pronounced downturn, declining 22.41% to 237,381 vehicles.
• Overseas Expansion provided the most dramatic growth, with exports surging by 326% to reach 131,935 units.

Concurrently, BYD appears to be actively managing inventory, having reportedly reduced production by over 12% during the month.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

Eroding Home-Field Advantage

The data underscores a tectonic shift in BYD's growth narrative. For years, relentless demand within China served as the primary engine for its expansion. That dynamic is now changing. The company's share of the domestic Chinese NEV market has plummeted from 36.1% in October 2024 to just 23.1% in October 2025.

Intensifying competition from rivals like Geely and Xiaomi is applying pressure on both volumes and margins in BYD's key segments. While the recent production of the 10,000th vehicle at its new plant in Camaçari, Brazil, shortly after opening is an operational milestone, it only partially mitigates the loss of dominance at home.

The Final Push for Annual Targets

With one month remaining, can BYD still hit its annual target? Investor attention is now fixed on December's performance. To achieve its revised full-year delivery goal of 4.6 million vehicles, the company needs to sell roughly 418,000 units this month.

Given the November volume, this final hurdle appears achievable barring supply chain disruptions. Operationally, BYD has already surpassed Tesla in global sales volume for 2025—a symbolic victory. Yet, its share price is testing critical support levels. Looking ahead to 2026, signals such as planned price increases in emerging markets like India point to strategies aimed at shoring up profitability. The fundamental strategic bet remains: Can BYD complete its transformation from a Chinese champion to a truly global dominator before its domestic hybrid revenue stream erodes further?