BYD’s Milestone Achievement Amidst Mounting Market Pressures

The Chinese automotive giant BYD has reached a significant manufacturing landmark, even as it navigates a complex and challenging domestic market. The company's latest production record underscores its global leadership in new energy vehicles (NEVs), yet this success is tempered by declining home sales, a substantial vehicle recall, and intensifying margin pressures. The critical question for investors is whether its year-end growth trajectory remains sustainable.

On December 18, BYD celebrated rolling its 15-millionth new energy vehicle off the assembly line. The milestone car was a Denza N8L SUV, a model from its premium subsidiary brand. This achievement solidifies the automaker's position as the world's largest producer of NEVs.

The acceleration in its production pace is particularly noteworthy:
* The journey to 15 million cumulative NEVs took 17 years.
* The most recent 5 million units were produced in just 13 months.
* The latest single million vehicles were built in a mere 66 days.

This production velocity places BYD ahead of its key international rivals. To date, Tesla has manufactured approximately 8 million electric cars, while Volkswagen's output of electrified vehicles sits below 3 million units.

November Sales: A Record High with Underlying Weakness

BYD reported deliveries of 480,186 NEVs in November, marking its strongest single month of 2025. However, this figure also represents the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline, with November sales down 5.25% compared to November 2024.

A breakdown of the November delivery data reveals a split performance:
* Total NEV Sales: 480,186 units (2025 high)
* Year-on-Year Change: -5.25%
* Month-on-Month Change: +8.8%
* Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs): 237,540 units (+19.9% YoY)
* Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): 237,381 units (-22.4% YoY)
* Exports: 131,661 units (+326% YoY, a new record)

The data highlights a clear divergence: pure electric vehicle sales are growing robustly, while plug-in hybrid deliveries are contracting significantly, pointing to continued softness in the domestic market.

Overseas Markets Fuel Expansion

International operations have emerged as a powerful growth engine. The 131,661 vehicles exported in November—a near quadrupling from the prior year—set a new monthly record. This surge reflects BYD's aggressive global push and the strategic importance of higher-margin foreign markets.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?

Cumulative exports for the period from January to November 2025 reached 912,911 vehicles. If December maintains this trend, the company is poised to surpass the symbolic threshold of 1 million units sold outside China for the full year, a major step in its internationalization strategy.

Recall Campaign Adds to Challenges

Adding to operational pressures, Chinese regulators mandated a significant recall in late November. The order covers 88,981 Qin Plus DM-i plug-in hybrid models manufactured between January 2021 and September 2023.

The recall addresses potential inconsistencies within the battery packs that could limit power output and, in extreme cases, prevent the vehicle from operating in pure electric mode. This marks the second major recall this year, following an October campaign involving over 115,000 Tang and Yuan Pro models.

Profitability Squeezed by Fierce Competition

The company's profitability is facing headwinds from an unrelenting price war in China's NEV sector. This intense competition has directly impacted earnings: BYD's net profit fell by 33% year-on-year in the third quarter, following a decline of similar magnitude in the second quarter.

Broader market conditions are also cooling. Retail NEV sales in China for the first half of December totaled 476,000 units, a 4% drop from the same period last year despite ongoing government incentives. The company's chairman recently acknowledged that BYD's technological edge is not as substantial as it was several years ago.

Annual Target Within Sight

BYD is reportedly targeting annual sales of 4.6 million vehicles for 2025. Achieving this goal would require deliveries of approximately 418,000 units in December. Given November's performance and typically strong year-end demand, this target appears within reach.

Cumulative sales through the end of November stand at 4.182 million vehicles, an 11.3% increase over the same period last year. The Ocean series of models contributed 2.03 million units, growing by 17.9%. The key focus for December will be whether BYD can maintain its current momentum in both domestic and export channels to fully realize its annual ambition.