Bumble Shares Face Mounting Headwinds as Growth Metrics Wane

A confluence of deteriorating fundamental metrics and bearish technical signals is casting a shadow over Bumble Inc. The dating app company is confronting significant investor skepticism, driven primarily by a declining base of paying users and downward revisions to revenue expectations. The central question for the market is whether the company can implement a successful strategy to reverse these trends.

The most pressing concern is the sustained drop in Bumble's core subscriber base. For the third quarter of 2025, the number of paying users fell to 3.6 million, representing a substantial 16.0% year-over-year decline. While the company managed to increase its average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) by 6.9% to $22.64, this pricing power has been insufficient to offset the loss in user volume.

Revenue projections reflect this challenge. Current consensus estimates forecast sales of approximately $982.76 million for the full year, which would mark an 8.29% decrease compared to the previous year. Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a further contraction to around $877.5 million in the following fiscal year—a drop of 10.71%. For the crucial fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, Bumble's own guidance calls for revenue in the range of $216 million to $224 million.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Positioning

The prevailing mood on Wall Street is one of caution. The consensus rating among 13 covering analysts remains a "Hold." Their average one-year price target sits at $5.08, with individual targets ranging from a low of $3.50 to a high of $7.00. This average implies a potential upside of roughly 45% from recent trading levels near $3.18, which is hovering around a 52-week low.

Recent analyst actions underscore the tempered outlook. Jefferies, for instance, recently reduced its price target from $5.00 to $4.00 while maintaining its Hold recommendation, signaling doubts about near-term growth prospects.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bumble?

Technical Picture Reinforces the Bearish Narrative

The chart analysis presents a uniformly negative short-term perspective. Technical indicators are overwhelmingly bearish, with 26 signals pointing downward and no bullish counter-signals present. Trading activity over the last 30 sessions saw only 14 positive (green) days. Market volatility is measured at approximately 10.35%, and the Fear & Greed Index registers a reading of 39, squarely in "Fear" territory.

The projected trading range for 2025 is narrow, between $3.53 and $3.65. In the absence of a significant positive catalyst from the company or the broader market, the shares are expected to consolidate at these depressed levels.

Strategic Crossroads and the Path Forward

With the company's founder having returned to the CEO role, investors are watching closely for signs of a new strategic direction. A sustained reversal in sentiment would likely require tangible improvements in user acquisition and retention, or a meaningful upward revision to revenue forecasts—potentially driven by a fourth-quarter performance that significantly exceeds the provided guidance.

Until such concrete operational progress is demonstrated, Bumble's stock is anticipated to remain range-bound. The burden of proof lies with the company to show it can stabilize its user base and rekindle growth in a competitive landscape.