BlackRock TCP Capital Shares Face Sustained Selling Pressure

Shares of BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. experienced another decline, dropping 1.43% to $5.50 in the latest session. The stock's performance over the past year has been stark, shedding nearly 40% of its value. It now trades a mere 4% above its 52-week low of $5.29, raising questions about the effectiveness of the company's ongoing efforts to stabilize its financial position through deleveraging.

Key figures highlight the current valuation. The company's market capitalization stands at $473.41 million. Its price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.60, indicating the shares trade at a significant discount to the stated net asset value (NAV) of $8.71 per share.

Earnings and Dividend Sustainability Under Scrutiny

The outlook for shareholder returns is a focal point for analysts. A dividend payment of $0.25 per share was distributed on December 31, 2025. However, projections for the earnings report due on February 26, 2026, forecast a result of $0.29 per share. This would represent a 23.68% decrease from the $0.38 per share reported in the prior year, casting doubt on the long-term viability of the current dividend level.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Blackrock TCP Capital?

Balance Sheet and Strategic Deleveraging

Management has been actively working to reduce leverage, with recent results showing progress. The net regulatory leverage ratio decreased from 1.28x to 1.20x. This was achieved through a strategic shift in the investment portfolio: acquisitions totaled $63.1 million in the last reporting period, while dispositions and repayments reached $139.5 million, resulting in a net decrease.
Concurrently, non-accruing loans saw a slight improvement, declining to 3.5% of the portfolio's fair value from 3.7%. Despite these balance sheet adjustments, the company's total investment income contracted to $50.5 million, applying pressure to the earnings base.

Technical Analysis Points to Continued Weakness

From a chart perspective, the technical structure remains bearish. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) continues to trade below the 60-day SMA, a pattern typically signaling persistent downward momentum. Immediate resistance levels are identified at $5.68 and $5.82, prices the stock has recently failed to breach. Consequently, the support zone near the 52-week low is viewed as critical for determining the next directional move.

Outlook Hinges on Forthcoming Results

The deleveraging campaign has successfully lowered the company's leverage, yet the decline in investment income presents a countervailing challenge. All attention now turns to the quarterly report scheduled for February 26. The figures released will be pivotal: confirmation of the earnings estimate may keep the dividend debate alive, while a significant deviation from expectations could reinforce the existing downward pressure on the share price.