Bitcoin’s November Crossroads: Long-Term Holders Clash with Whales

Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture, wrestling to maintain its footing near the $110,000 threshold. This follows a volatile October that witnessed the cryptocurrency surge to a fresh all-time high exceeding $126,000 before undergoing a sharp correction. As price action appears to be consolidating, a significant battle is unfolding beneath the surface between major investor cohorts, with the outcome poised to dictate the market's next major move.

The institutional exchange-traded fund (ETF) landscape presents a conflicting narrative. October concluded with substantial net inflows aggregating to $3.69 billion. However, a notable shift occurred as the month drew to a close, with two separate days recording outflows surpassing $470 million each. These rank among the most significant daily withdrawals seen this year. Despite this recent pressure, the institutional footprint remains deeply entrenched. Collective ETF holdings amount to approximately 1.43 million Bitcoin, representing about 7.2% of the entire circulating supply.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

Regulatory Developments Offer Clarity

Amid the price uncertainty, regulatory bodies across the globe are providing more defined frameworks. Australian authorities confirmed in late October that Bitcoin will likely not be classified as a financial product. Concurrently, new risk-sensitive capital guidelines for financial institutions take effect today in Canada, potentially influencing how traditional finance interacts with digital assets.

A Historical Precedent Meets Current Headwinds

Market participants often reference "Moonvember," a term born from Bitcoin's historically strong performance during this month. Nevertheless, the current environment, characterized by substantial selling from long-term investors and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, raises legitimate questions about whether this seasonal pattern will hold. The clash between persistent selling pressure and strategic accumulation creates an unpredictable backdrop for the weeks ahead.