Bitcoin’s Crossroads: Accumulation and Selling Pressure Define Early 2026

Bitcoin is struggling to establish a clear directional trend as 2026 gets underway. The market is caught between opposing forces: persistent selling pressure and skeptical commentary on one side, and fresh capital inflows into ETFs alongside significant on-chain accumulation on the other. The critical question is whether buyer demand will prove robust enough to counterbalance the recent weakness.

A notable signal has emerged from the institutional corner. Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows of approximately $925.3 million over the first three trading days of 2026, according to data from Farside Investors. This substantial capital commitment during a period of broader market uncertainty suggests larger investors continue to view current price levels as an acceptable entry point.

Adding to this narrative, BlackRock’s recent larger-scale on-chain transfers of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime garnered attention. Market observers interpret these movements as potential portfolio adjustments or preparations for incoming funds related to its ETF. While definitive conclusions are elusive, such activity underscores that institutional engagement with Bitcoin persists.

Price Action and Technical Perspective

Following modest gains at the year's opening, Bitcoin is now finding it difficult to maintain a foothold above the $91,000 level. During the week, the price faced rejection around $95,000, reinforcing that area as a stubborn resistance zone.

From a technical standpoint, the support band between $87,500 and $89,000 is now crucial. Analysts note this zone could be tested in the near term. A decisive breakdown below this area would bring medium-term targets near $76,000 into focus—a level last touched in April 2025. Bitcoin’s current price of roughly $90,982 remains well below the October 2025 all-time high but is still significantly above its 52-week low.

The 50-day moving average, situated near $89,200, was recently surpassed, hinting at tentative stabilization. Meanwhile, a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 38 indicates the market is leaning toward oversold conditions without yet reaching an extreme.

Diverging On-Chain Signals: Accumulation vs. Miner Distribution

Long-Term Holders Step In

On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant paint a picture of conflicting dynamics. A striking development is the activity of accumulation addresses. These wallets expanded their holdings from about 249,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC within the first six days of January—a net accumulation of roughly 60,000 BTC. This marks a shift from a prolonged period where balances fluctuated sideways between 200,000 and 230,000 BTC.

This altered pattern suggests long-term oriented participants are viewing early-year price levels as a buying opportunity. After months of hesitation, significant buyers appear willing to absorb substantial volume once more.

Miners Adopt a Cautious Stance

Conversely, miners are exhibiting different behavior. Data from CryptoQuant indicates they transferred approximately 33,000 BTC to Binance during the same period. Elevated inflows from mining wallets to exchanges are typically seen as a sign that holders may be looking to liquidate or at least position assets for sale.

Given the preceding price appreciation, this move resembles a risk-management strategy by miners. Their increased willingness to offload holdings points to diminished conviction on this side of the market and contributes to near-term selling pressure.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

Shifts in Order Flow and Sentiment

An examination of Taker Flows on Binance, however, shows some easing of pressure. While a net average of about $2.3 billion was sold daily in November 2025, the exchange has recorded seven consecutive days of modest net buying to start the year, averaging $410 million per day. The extreme selling pressure witnessed in prior months has thus subsided, at least temporarily.

In parallel, the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index has moved back into neutral territory for the first time since November. The phase of pronounced fear has ended, though euphoria remains absent. This muted sentiment aligns with the coexisting trends of accumulation and distribution.

Analyst Views: Short-Term Caution Meets Long-Term Conviction

A Predominantly Cautious Near-Term View

Several prominent traders and analysts offer a sober near-term outlook. A trader known as Roman maintains a price target of $76,000, viewing the current consolidation as merely a pause on the path downward. Keith Alan of Material Indicators warns of a potential "macro Death Cross" forming on the weekly chart—a pattern many technical analysts interpret as signaling broader weakness. He suggests any interim rallies may present opportunities to realize profits.

Daan Crypto Trades adds that over the past two years, the lower wicks on monthly candlesticks have been larger than the current one in 100% of months. Some technicians read this as indicating insufficient downward "pain" has been endured to establish a durable market bottom.

Expecting Consolidation, Not Collapse

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju offers a more neutral perspective. He notes that overall capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up as investors rotate back into traditional assets like gold and silver. Rather than predicting a sharp crash, he anticipates an extended sideways movement over the coming months.

The Long-Term Bull Case Endures

On the opposite side, well-known long-term optimists reiterate their foundational thesis. Venture investor Tim Draper has reaffirmed his $250,000 price target, suggesting 2026 could be the year Bitcoin achieves mainstream adoption. Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise posits that Bitcoin might break its traditional four-year cycle pattern and could challenge new all-time highs as early as 2026. These views, while not negating short-term risks, highlight that the long-term growth narrative remains intact for a segment of the market.

Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Context

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, with a reading of 28, continues to signal "Fear." Since early November, the indicator has oscillated between fear and extreme fear. This climate suggests retail investors are acting cautiously, refraining from larger commitments.

From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin's recent decline coincided with an increase in US initial jobless claims to 208,000, slightly exceeding expectations. This reaction underscores Bitcoin's growing sensitivity to US economic data—a development that has intensified alongside its deeper integration into the traditional financial system via ETF structures.

Conclusion and Path Forward

In the short term, the balance between strong accumulation by long-term addresses and consistent ETF inflows on one hand, and selling pressure from miners and other sellers on the other, will be decisive. As long as the price oscillates within the corridor of approximately $87,500 to $95,000, the consolidation narrative holds. A break below the lower boundary would lend credence to skeptical forecasts targeting the $76,000 region, while sustained buying above $95,000 would significantly improve the technical picture.