Bitcoin Closes 2025 on a Weak Note as Key Threshold Eludes Bulls

Bitcoin is poised to end 2025 in negative territory, failing to sustain a brief holiday rally. The digital asset is once again facing downward pressure, currently consolidating around the $87,000 level. This leaves the crucial $90,000 psychological barrier out of reach, dashing hopes for a positive year-end close.

The market is witnessing divergent strategies among major players. On one side, MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, continues its aggressive accumulation strategy. Between December 22 and 28, the firm purchased an additional 1,229 Bitcoin for approximately $108.8 million, paying an average price of $88,568 per coin. This brings its total holdings to 672,497 BTC, cementing its position as the world's largest corporate holder.

However, a broader wave of institutional caution is evident. Data from CoinShares reveals that digital asset investment products experienced net outflows of $446 million last week, with Bitcoin-specific products accounting for $443 million of that total. In a related move, BlackRock transferred over 2,200 Bitcoin (worth roughly $192 million) to Coinbase Prime on December 29. This followed a week of net outflows from its spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT.

Critical Support Level Under Scrutiny

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is caught in a compression phase. The immediate support at $86,700 is now a critical line in the sand; a decisive break below it could trigger a decline toward $80,000. To finish the year in positive territory, the cryptocurrency would need to surge past $93,400—a level that remains about 3% above its current price, which is also 3% below Bitcoin's opening price for 2025.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

The failed attempt to reclaim the $90,000 mark highlights ongoing weakness. Bitcoin currently trades approximately 30% below its all-time high of $126,210, recorded in October.

Market Sentiment and Leverage Signal Potential Volatility

Current market sentiment indicators reflect "Extreme Fear," registering a score of 23. While the 24-hour trading volume has surged by over 176% to $46.12 billion, analysts interpret this increase as a sign of selling pressure rather than healthy accumulation.

On-chain metrics point to brewing turbulence. Aggregate Open Interest climbed by $2.4 billion in December, even as spot trading volumes exhibited instability. This sets a precarious stage for leveraged traders: a 10% price surge could liquidate short positions valued at $7.79 billion, while an equivalent drop would wipe out roughly $6 billion in long positions.

The Battlefield for Early 2026

The final trading sessions of the year are likely to set the tone for early 2026. The narrow band between $86,500 and $90,000 represents the current battlefield. A decisive breakout from this range in either direction will likely define the trend for the coming weeks.