Barrick Gold’s Key Mine Sees Drastic Output Decline Amid Regulatory Dispute

New figures from Mali's mining ministry have laid bare the severe operational impact of a prolonged regulatory standoff on Barrick Gold. Production at the company's most significant complex in the country plummeted by approximately three-quarters last year. While the stock's reaction was muted, the data underscores the substantial cost of the dispute.

Despite the confirmation of poor operational results, investor sentiment remained relatively steady. On Friday, Barrick's shares on the NYSE declined by a modest 1.8% to $48.73. The broader trend for the stock, however, remains strongly positive. Fueled by high gold prices and the resolution of the Mali conflict, the equity has surged roughly 222% on a year-to-date basis.

From a fundamental perspective, the company presents an attractive valuation within the sector. Barrick trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 23.5, which is below the metals and mining sector average of 27.8. The corporation's financial foundation appears solid, having generated a record quarterly operating cash flow of $2.4 billion in Q3 2025.

Staggering Production Collapse in Mali

The data released late Thursday paints a stark picture of the operational disruption. The Loulo-Gounkoto complex, previously Mali's largest gold producer, yielded only 5.5 tonnes of gold in 2025. This output marks a dramatic 75.6% fall from the previous year's production of 22.5 tonnes.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

This steep decline was the direct result of a two-year dispute with the government over reforms to the national mining code. The confrontation culminated in June 2025 when authorities placed the complex under state-adminforced management. A settlement was finally reached in December, restoring Barrick's operational control. The consequences for its market position are significant: the company has lost its status as Mali's top gold producer to rival B2Gold.

Analyst Outlook and Future Focus

Market observers view the December resolution as a critical turning point. Analysts from Scotiabank, Stifel Nicolaus, and Citigroup have recently reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. Attention is now shifting beyond the normalization of operations in Mali to the growth potential of the "Fourmile" project in Nevada. This high-grade deposit has the capacity to boost the company's annual gold output by an estimated 20% by the end of the decade.

The true assessment of Barrick's recovery will come in February 2026, when the firm reports its fourth-quarter and full-year results. Investors will be closely monitoring the pace at which production at Loulo-Gounkoto can be ramped up and whether the company's guidance for the current year meets growth expectations.