Barrick Gold Receives Major Price Target Upgrade from BNP Paribas Exane

A series of strategic moves by Barrick Gold has captured the attention of Wall Street, prompting a significant reassessment of the mining giant's prospects. Following the resolution of costly legal disputes and the announcement of a potential separate listing for its North American assets, analysts at BNP Paribas Exane have issued a notably bullish update on the company's shares.

In a decisive shift, BNP Paribas Exane raised its rating on Barrick Gold from "Neutral" to "Outperform" last Friday. The firm's analysts, led by Alan Spence, dramatically increased their price target from $34.50 to $50.00 per share. Spence attributed this optimistic outlook to an anticipated "wave of events" poised to positively alter the company's risk profile over the next twelve months.

Key factors cited include the valuation of the Fourmile project in Nevada and the clarified leadership situation under interim CEO Mark Hill. Trading at €35.21 on Friday, the stock is now approaching its 52-week high of €36.47.

Strategic Portfolio Reshaping Drives Optimism

The recent analyst confidence is largely fueled by Barrick's Monday announcement that it is exploring an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for its North American operations. The plan involves bundling holdings in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, and the Fourmile project into a new entity, referred to as "NewCo."

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

The strategic rationale is that by focusing on politically stable regions, this standalone business could command a substantially higher market valuation than it does within the current corporate structure. Aligning with this portfolio optimization, Barrick has also completed the sale of its Tongon mine in Côte d'Ivoire, a transaction expected to generate up to $305 million.

Mitigating Geopolitical Risk

Further reducing uncertainty, Barrick reached a settlement with the government of Mali in late November regarding tax and operational disputes at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex. While the agreement carries a cost of approximately $430 million, it secures the long-term operation in one of the miner's most productive regions and removes a significant geopolitical overhang—a move analysts describe as "de-risking."

Financially, the company appears well-positioned to handle these settlements. A solid operational cash flow of $2.4 billion in the third quarter provides ample coverage for both the settlement payments and planned capital returns to shareholders.

Investor Timeline and Future Catalysts

Looking ahead, investors can expect a concrete update on the North American division's IPO plans in February 2026. Barrick intends to provide this update alongside the release of its full-year 2025 results. If the market rewards the proposed sum-of-the-parts separation as anticipated, the newly set $50 price target could indeed become a realistic prospect.