ASML’s Robust Outlook: Record Orders Fuel Confidence for 2026

Chipmaking equipment giant ASML is entering 2026 with significant momentum, powered by record-breaking orders and sustained demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure. This optimism persists even as the company navigates ongoing geopolitical headwinds. The critical question now is whether this surge in bookings will sustain its performance over the coming quarters.

ASML's financial update on January 28 revealed 2025 revenue of €32.7 billion. A standout feature was the record level of order intake during the fourth quarter. The company attributes this strength to an improved medium-term outlook among its customers, a perspective largely driven by the wave of investment in AI and data center capacity.

Building on this foundation, ASML has set an ambitious revenue target for 2026, forecasting a range of €34 billion to €39 billion. A key contributor to this growth is expected to be increased sales of its cutting-edge Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors.

The company's confidence will ultimately be measured by its ability to maintain elevated order levels and confirm its revenue margin guidance throughout the year.

Key Financial Highlights:
- 2025 Revenue: €32.7 billion
- 2026 Revenue Forecast: €34 to €39 billion
- Primary Growth Drivers: Higher EUV system sales, AI and data center demand

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML?

Shareholder Returns and Geopolitical Adjustments

ASML is also signaling strength through shareholder returns. For 2025, the company plans a 17% increase in its total dividend compared to the prior year. Furthermore, it completed a share buyback program in December 2025 and has initiated a new program scheduled to run through 2028. The next immediate milestone for investors is the interim dividend payment on February 18, 2026.

On the geopolitical front, export controls affecting sales to China remain a factor. ASML anticipates that China will represent a smaller portion of its overall revenue mix in the future. However, management states this shift does not alter the company's fundamental long-term demand scenarios.

Despite this strong operational backdrop, the share price has not moved in a straight line, declining by 1.9% over the past seven trading days.

The Next Catalyst: Q1 2026 Results

The next significant test will come with the release of the first-quarter 2026 results, anticipated around mid-April (with April 15 cited as a potential date). This report will clarify whether the recent record bookings were an anomaly or if ASML can successfully translate the AI-driven investment cycle into sustained order momentum and revenue growth for 2026.