ASML’s Mixed Quarter: Strong Profits Offset by Revenue Concerns

Dutch semiconductor equipment leader ASML delivered a complex set of third-quarter results that left investors weighing conflicting signals. The company's shares experienced notable downward pressure despite impressive earnings performance, creating uncertainty about its near-term trajectory.

The semiconductor giant reported earnings per share of $6.41, comfortably surpassing analyst expectations of $6.27. This robust profitability contrasted sharply with revenue figures, which reached $8.71 billion against projected sales of $8.99 billion. This divergence between earnings strength and revenue disappointment explains the current market apprehension, as shareholders question whether such profitability can persist without corresponding top-line expansion.

Beneath the surface, however, fundamental indicators remain healthy. ASML maintained a gross margin of 51.6%, aligning with target ranges, while achieving a net income of €2.1 billion with a net profit margin of 27%. Perhaps most significantly, the company's order backlog stands above €35.2 billion, indicating strong demand visibility for coming quarters.

Analyst Confidence Persists

Market experts have maintained surprisingly optimistic positions despite the quarterly revenue shortfall. The overwhelming consensus recommendation remains "Buy," comprising three "Strong Buy" and sixteen "Buy" ratings. Several institutions have actually increased their price targets, with Berenberg raising theirs from €735 to €1,050 and Morgan Stanley lifting their target from €950 to €975. The average price target among analysts has climbed from €809 to €938, representing a clear vote of confidence in ASML's long-term prospects.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

Artificial Intelligence Fuels Growth Narrative

The ongoing artificial intelligence boom continues to drive demand for ASML's semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Both logic and DRAM customers are accelerating investments in production capacity. The company's strategic partnership with French AI firm Mistral aims to integrate artificial intelligence throughout ASML's product portfolio, a move designed to enhance operational efficiency and throughput.

ASML further demonstrated its innovation capabilities with the delivery of its TWINSCAN XT:260 i-line scanner, which promises to quadruple productivity in the advanced packaging segment.

Future Outlook: Recovery Ahead?

Company leadership expressed confidence in their fourth-quarter forecast, projecting robust performance and approximately 15% revenue growth for full-year 2025. ASML's dominant position in the EUV lithography market continues to provide competitive advantages as the semiconductor industry advances toward increasingly smaller process nodes.

Several upcoming investor conferences may provide additional market catalysts in the coming weeks. The true test, however, arrives in late January 2026, when subsequent quarterly results will reveal whether the company can deliver on its growth promises or confirm concerns about slowing momentum.