Analysts Express Caution on Carrier Global’s Near-Term Prospects

Shares of climate and refrigeration technology specialist Carrier Global Corp are facing headwinds. Market sentiment has cooled following a subdued business update, prompting two major financial institutions to revise their price targets downward. The core concern centers on a persistent slowdown within a critical revenue segment for the conglomerate.

The catalyst for this renewed analyst skepticism was management commentary provided at a conference on December 4. Company executives indicated that earnings for the ongoing quarter could fall by approximately $0.05 per share, attributed to weaker-than-anticipated sales volumes in November—a trend expected to continue through December. This softness is primarily linked to ongoing challenges in the U.S. Residential HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) market, a fundamental pillar of Carrier's business.

In a direct response, Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) adjusted its price target, lowering it from $75 to $70. The bank maintained its "Outperform" rating but noted that the new fourth-quarter guidance now sits roughly 12% below prior expectations. This move followed a similar adjustment by Wells Fargo, which a day earlier reduced its target from $62 to $59 while keeping its "Hold" recommendation in place.

Shareholder Returns Contrast with Stock Performance

This period of operational weakness presents a stark contrast to other recent corporate developments. In late October, Carrier Global reported quarterly earnings that surprisingly exceeded analyst forecasts. Furthermore, the company's board significantly expanded its share repurchase authorization to a total of approximately $5.8 billion and announced a modest increase in the quarterly dividend.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Carrier Global Corp?

Despite these substantial commitments to capital return, the equity's performance has been disappointing. The stock is trading notably below its key moving averages and has shed nearly 30% of its value since the start of the year. This decline significantly lags the broader performance of the S&P 500 index.

Long-Term Consensus Remains Positive

While near-term views are mixed, the overarching analyst consensus continues to point upward. Among the twelve market experts currently providing ratings, all twelve recommend purchasing the shares. The average price target among them stands at $73.75. The prevailing expectation is for demand in the HVAC segment to normalize with the onset of the 2026 cooling season, which should drive a replenishment of inventory channels.

Investors, however, are advised to exercise patience. The next significant test will be the release of the final quarterly results for Q4 2025, which will provide a clear picture of the exact magnitude of the current business slowdown.