Analysts Boost Outlook for Carlyle Group Shares

Market analysts from two prominent financial institutions have recently issued updated assessments of The Carlyle Group, with both raising their price targets for the alternative asset manager's stock. The revisions are primarily driven by expectations for stronger growth in the firm's fee-related earnings.

On December 12, Barclays reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Carlyle while increasing its price target to $68 from $65. This represents an approximate 4.6% upward adjustment. A day earlier, on December 11, UBS initiated coverage of the company with a Buy recommendation and a more bullish price objective of $74 per share.

UBS provided a detailed rationale, forecasting an acceleration in management fee growth. The firm anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2025 through 2027, a significant increase from the 2-3% rate projected for the preceding two-year period. This acceleration is expected to drive fee-related earnings higher at a 12% CAGR. Furthermore, UBS models an expansion in Carlyle's margins to 50.5% by 2027, compared to approximately 48% in 2025. The analysts attribute this anticipated improvement to enhanced cost management and strategic investments made following the tenure of CEO Harvey Schwartz.

Insider Trading and Institutional Activity

Amid the optimistic analyst commentary, insider selling activity was noted. Director and Co-Founder David M. Rubenstein sold 625,000 shares on December 10 at an average price of $56.55 each, generating proceeds of roughly $35.34 million. This transaction reduced his total holdings by about 2.18%; he continues to own over 27.9 million shares directly.

Institutional investor movements presented a mixed picture during the second quarter of 2025. Alkeon Capital Management increased its stake by 13.4%, adding 700,000 shares. Conversely, Bamco Inc. NY reduced its position by 5.9%, selling 94,268 shares. Collectively, institutional investors and hedge funds hold approximately 55.88% of Carlyle's outstanding equity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying The Carlyle Group?

Financial Performance and Strategic Moves

Carlyle's recent financial results delivered a mixed message. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported distributable earnings of $368 million, or $0.96 per share, meeting consensus estimates. On a year-to-date basis, cumulative distributable earnings rose 10% to $1.3 billion, or $3.04 per share. However, quarterly revenue of $782.50 million fell short of the $848.51 million consensus forecast.

Trading at $58.35 at last Friday's open, Carlyle commands a market capitalization of about $21.03 billion. Its current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 32.6. Based on consensus earnings estimates for 2027, the stock trades at roughly 11 times earnings—reportedly the lowest multiple among its alternative asset manager peers. The company offers a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, translating to a current yield of 2.4%.

In a separate strategic development, Carlyle is in negotiations to acquire a majority stake in India's Nido Home Finance Ltd. The potential entry investment for this deal is around $300 million.

Summary: While recent operational results were mixed—with earnings per share meeting expectations but revenue missing—analysts at Barclays and UBS see upside potential based on projected fee recovery and margin expansion. The substantial insider sale by David Rubenstein and the high level of institutional ownership remain key factors for investors to consider alongside the upgraded price targets.