Analyst Upgrade Highlights Rigetti’s Major Contract Amid Market Skepticism

A significant new contract has propelled quantum computing firm Rigetti into the spotlight, triggering a substantial price target increase from Wall Street. However, the market's immediate reaction has been one of surprising caution, creating a stark contrast between analyst optimism and investor sentiment.

The catalyst for the renewed analyst interest is a concrete commercial achievement. Rigetti Computing has secured an $8.4 million contract to supply a 108-qubit quantum computing system to India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC). Market experts view this deal as a critical validation, demonstrating that the company's technology is moving beyond theoretical promise to generating tangible, real-world demand.

Wedbush Sees Substantial Upside

In direct response to this development, analysts at Wedbush Securities have significantly raised their valuation for Rigetti. The firm has boosted its price target from $35 to $40 per share, reaffirming its "Outperform" rating. Based on Wednesday's closing price of $23.67, this revised target suggests a potential upside of approximately 60 to 70 percent for the equity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

Financial Realities Dampen Enthusiasm

Despite this positive news flow, Rigetti's shares retreated by over 5 percent in the subsequent trading session. This decline is attributed by observers to ongoing fundamental financial challenges and operational delays. A review of the most recent quarterly results (Q3) reveals a year-over-year revenue decline of roughly 18% to $1.95 million, with the company continuing to operate at a loss.

Further weighing on investor confidence is an adjustment to the product roadmap. The general availability of Rigetti's Cepheus-1 system has now been pushed back to the end of the first quarter of 2026. This delay introduces uncertainty regarding near-term revenue generation. Trading approximately 51% below its 52-week high, the stock price reflects deep-seated market concerns about the company's financial stability and execution timeline.

Balancing Promise with Execution

The investment case for Rigetti remains a study in contrasting timelines: immense long-term potential versus near-term capital consumption. While industry leaders like Nvidia and Alphabet often project widespread commercial quantum adoption further into the future, Rigetti is focused on executing its specific hardware development goals. Maintaining the revised schedule for Cepheus-1 and successfully progressing toward systems exceeding 1,000 qubits will be crucial for rebuilding sustained investor trust.