Analyst Optimism Reaches Fever Pitch for Barrick Gold Shares

A wave of pronounced optimism is sweeping through analyst circles regarding Barrick Gold, with multiple financial institutions significantly upgrading their outlooks for the mining giant. This collective shift in sentiment marks a notable change in perspective on the stock. However, this burgeoning expert confidence prompts a critical evaluation: is the recent share price performance fundamentally justified, or has the market rally already overshot reasonable expectations?

Beneath the surface of this enthusiastic coverage lies a complex valuation picture. One common analytical method, a discounted cash flow analysis, suggests the shares may already be trading above their intrinsic fair value, indicating that future growth could be partially priced in. Paradoxically, another key metric tells a different story. When assessed by its price-to-earnings ratio, the stock appears to potentially be undervalued based on its current earnings power. This stark discrepancy between valuation methods makes a clear-cut assessment challenging, presenting a contradictory image that depends entirely on the analytical lens one applies.

A Surge of Bullish Upgrades

The recent flurry of analyst actions has been substantial. ScotiaBank dramatically raised its full-year 2025 earnings per share forecast from $2.92 to $3.35, representing an increase of nearly 15 percent. The bank concurrently assigned Barrick a "Strong Buy" recommendation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

This positive reassessment is being echoed across the industry. Cormark lifted its price target to the equivalent of approximately 32 euros. Similarly, BMO Capital Markets boosted its target from around 26 euros to 29 euros. Taking the most aggressive stance, Canaccord Genuity has set a price target translating to roughly 40 euros. The prevailing consensus is now firmly tilted toward a "Buy" rating, demonstrating a rare level of unanimity among market experts.

Spectacular Gains Prompt Scrutiny

The stock's performance metrics are undeniably strong. Barrick has delivered an impressive rally, posting a gain of 76.1 percent over the past twelve months. This substantial appreciation has been primarily driven by tangible operational progress, including the successful ramp-up of new mining projects and the formation of strategic joint ventures.

From a technical analysis perspective, the equity is showing strength, trading well above its key 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Yet, this powerful upward trajectory itself presents a central dilemma. Following such a steep and sustained climb, investors are inevitably questioning whether there is significant room for further advancement or if the stage is set for a period of profit-taking.