Analyst Confidence Surges for Warrior Met Coal on Operational Milestones

Market experts are significantly raising their valuation forecasts for Warrior Met Coal, driven by a key operational advancement and a major brokerage upgrade. The accelerated timeline for a flagship mining project is prompting analysts to revise their models upward, anticipating production growth that outpaces previous market expectations.

In a notable shift, UBS has upgraded its rating on the company's shares from "Neutral" to "Buy." Concurrently, the firm has increased its price target from $100 to $108. This move aligns with a similarly bullish stance from Jefferies, which ten days prior reaffirmed its buy recommendation and set an even more ambitious target of $120 per share. These projections stand well above the average analyst price target of approximately $77 that was prevalent in mid-January.

The company's financial standing is also receiving positive recognition. In December, Moody's revised its outlook for Warrior Met Coal to "positive," citing an improved cash flow profile stemming from recent progress on major capital projects.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Warrior Met Coal?

Blue Creek Project Exceeds Schedule

Central to the renewed optimism is the performance of the Blue Creek mining initiative. The longwall operation at this site commenced in October of last year, a full eight months ahead of the original schedule. This head start has already yielded tangible results, reflected in the production figures for the third quarter of 2025.

During that quarter, output climbed by 17% year-over-year to reach 2.2 million tons, compared to 1.9 million tons in the same period a year earlier. Management anticipates the mine will achieve full operational capacity by early 2026. The upcoming quarterly report will be scrutinized to confirm whether these operational gains are translating as expected.

Upcoming Financial Disclosure

Investor attention is now firmly set on February 12. After the close of U.S. markets, Warrior Met Coal is scheduled to release its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and the full 2025 fiscal year. A conference call with management is set to follow at 10:30 p.m. Central European Time, where executives will provide detailed commentary on the financial performance and the ongoing production ramp-up.