Analyst Confidence Rises for Blue Bird Amid Strong Fundamentals

Market sentiment toward Blue Bird Corporation is decidedly positive, buoyed by robust quarterly performance and a clear strategic vision. While recent insider stock sales have drawn notice, the prevailing view among financial experts is one of optimism, supported by solid financial health and ambitious growth plans in the electric vehicle sector.

The company's financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, released on November 24, significantly outperformed market forecasts. Key figures included:
* Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.32, surpassing the anticipated $0.97.
* Revenue: $409.37 million, a 16.9% year-over-year increase and well above the $380.37 million expectation.
* Adjusted EBITDA: Approximately $68 million for the quarter.

For the full fiscal year 2025, adjusted EBITDA reached $221 million, exceeding the company's own guidance. Management has reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2026, projecting $1.5 billion in revenue and $220 million in adjusted EBITDA. The long-term ambition is to achieve $2 billion in revenue with an EBITDA margin exceeding 16%.

Brokerage Firms Signal Strong Buy Consensus

The analyst community has reinforced its favorable stance. The current average broker recommendation (ABR) for Blue Bird stands at 1.63, squarely between "Strong Buy" and "Buy." Of the eight firms covering the stock, five rate it a "Strong Buy" and one a "Buy." The consensus price target is $64.60, with some analysts, including DA Davidson, recently raising their targets to as high as $76.

This confidence is further reflected in revised earnings projections. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current fiscal year's EPS has been adjusted upward by 1.8% to $4.21.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Blue Bird?

Insider Transactions Amid Financial Strength

Recent weeks have seen notable insider selling activity. On December 10, 2025, Chief Financial Officer Razvan Radulescu sold 7,984 shares at an average price of $50.39, reducing his holdings by 13.99%. This followed similar disposals by the CEO and COO on December 4.

However, this activity is set against a backdrop of a robust balance sheet. Analysts at InvestingPro have rated the company's financial health as "GREAT," noting it holds more cash than debt. On Thursday, December 11, the stock closed at $51.52, marking a 1.14% gain and its third consecutive positive session. Despite this recent strength, the share price remains down 2.31% over the past ten days. The 52-week trading range spans from a low of $30.04 to a high of $61.95.

Electrification Strategy as a Core Growth Pillar

Blue Bird's strategic focus on electric and low-emission school buses is viewed as a significant competitive advantage. A central component of its growth plan is the goal to increase annual electric bus production to between 4,000 and 5,000 units after 2028—a substantial jump from the 704 units produced in fiscal 2024. This initiative is expected to benefit from the broader adoption of affordable electric vehicles and potential fiscal incentives.

The company's next major milestone will be the release of its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, anticipated in February 2026.