Akebia Therapeutics Shares Extend Decline Amid Analyst Downgrades

Akebia Therapeutics continues to face significant selling pressure as its stock extends a prolonged downward trend. The equity registered another substantial decline, falling more than 5% during Friday's trading session. Fresh pressure emerged from sharply reduced analyst estimates, compounding existing investor concerns. Meanwhile, company executives are preparing to address the investment community at a major healthcare conference.

The company's leadership team, including CEO John P. Butler and CFO Erik Ostrowski, is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference in London later today. This appearance represents a critical opportunity for management to address mounting investor doubts and potentially chart a course for recovery. Market participants will be watching closely for any signals about the company's strategic direction in the coming weeks.

Diverging Analyst Views Create Uncertainty

Investment firm Leerink Partners issued a dramatic revision to its earnings projections for the biotechnology company. Analyst R. Ruiz substantially lowered the 2025 profit estimate from $0.14 per share to just $0.06, representing a significant reduction that further dampens sentiment around the already struggling stock.

Despite this pessimistic outlook, not all market researchers share the same bearish perspective. H.C. Wainwright maintains its $6 price target and continues to rate Akebia shares as a "Buy." The consensus price objective among four covering analysts remains at $6, suggesting potential upside exceeding 250% from current trading levels.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Akebia Therapeutics?

Regulatory Setback Continues to Weigh on Sentiment

The primary catalyst for the stock's persistent weakness traces back to an October 28 decision by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Regulators rejected the study design for the VALOR Phase 3 trial of Vafseo in non-dialysis dependent patients. This regulatory setback forced Akebia to completely abandon pursuit of this treatment indication, dealing a substantial blow to the company's growth prospects.

Financial Performance Offers Limited Solace

Amid the challenging environment, Akebia did manage to report a modest profit of $0.5 million for the third quarter. The company recorded $14.3 million in revenue from Vafseo during the period. However, investors remain skeptical whether these results provide sufficient foundation for a sustained recovery, particularly as the company aims to quadruple access to Vafseo for dialysis patients by year-end.

The critical question facing market participants is whether management can successfully navigate these headwinds or if further declines lie ahead. Today's presentation may offer crucial insights into which direction the stock will take in the coming weeks.