A Tale of Two Indexes: Strategy’s Contradictory Market Milestone

The inclusion of Strategy into the Nasdaq 100 index, effective today, presents a stark paradox for the company's shareholders. While such a milestone typically triggers significant buying from passive funds, the event is overshadowed by a concurrent threat: a potential forced exit from MSCI benchmarks that could unleash an estimated $9 billion in institutional selling pressure. Rarely has an index promotion been accompanied by such substantial structural risk.

The primary concern stems from a consultation launched by index provider MSCI on December 19. This process, running until January 15, 2026, proposes new eligibility criteria that would exclude companies whose value is predominantly derived from digital assets. Given Strategy's substantial Bitcoin holdings, it squarely fits this description. Should MSCI implement a proposed 50% threshold for crypto-asset exposure, all ETFs and funds tracking its indices would be compelled to divest their holdings.

The scale of this potential outflow, estimated at $9 billion, would likely overwhelm any positive momentum generated by the Nasdaq 100 inclusion. This creates a persistent overhang of uncertainty for the stock, despite the short-term index-related tailwind.

Unwavering Bitcoin Accumulation Amid Turbulence

Undeterred by these index-related crosscurrents, Chairman Michael Saylor continues to execute the firm's core accumulation strategy. As of December 14, Strategy's treasury holds 671,268 BTC, valued at a total of $50.33 billion. The company's average entry price for its Bitcoin position stands at approximately $75,000 per coin.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

With Bitcoin trading near the $90,000 mark, Saylor hinted via social media on Sunday at further purchases. The company's most recent disclosed buying spree occurred between December 8 and 14, acquiring 10,645 Bitcoin for roughly $980 million. This aggressive strategy is funded through a combination of equity sales—most recently involving 4.79 million shares—and a $1.44 billion liquidity reserve, which is primarily earmarked for dividend payments.

In a note of relative stability, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Strategy's 'B-' credit rating on December 16. Nonetheless, the company's identity as a leveraged crypto proxy remains clear. Controlling about 3.2% of the total Bitcoin supply, Strategy's fortunes are intrinsically tied to both Bitcoin's notorious volatility and the evolving rules of major index providers.

A Pivotal Week for Trading Dynamics

Market participants now face a delicate balancing act. Inflows from funds tied to the Nasdaq 100 will clash with the looming threat of forced selling from MSCI-tracked vehicles. Activity in the options market points to heightened speculation, with notable volume in Call options at strikes between $165 and $175 for December 26. This suggests some traders are betting on a year-end rally, choosing to look past the regulatory and index risks.

The immediate trajectory will likely hinge on two factors: whether Saylor authorizes another significant Bitcoin purchase in the coming days, and if Bitcoin can sustain its position above the $90,000 threshold. Until the MSCI consultation concludes on January 15, 2026, the structural uncertainty for Strategy's shareholder base will remain firmly in place.