A Potential Turning Point for AMD’s Market Prospects

Recent signals from regulators and company leadership are pointing toward a more favorable environment for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), following a period of pressure from U.S. export controls and concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) demand.

A primary catalyst for renewed optimism stems from reports that the U.S. Commerce Department is finalizing plans to allow the export of AI GPUs to China under a strict licensing model. This potential policy adjustment, initially seen as a positive for competitor Nvidia, is now viewed as directly beneficial for AMD. Should this framework be confirmed, it could restore AMD's access to one of the world's largest semiconductor markets for its MI300 and upcoming MI325 series processors.

The previous stringent export bans had effectively severed this significant revenue stream. The prospect of even partially reopening this channel would substantially expand AMD's total addressable market (TAM) in a single move, a development praised by market observers.

Leadership Counters AI Demand Concerns

Adding to the positive sentiment, CEO Lisa Su has directly addressed growing market anxieties that the AI boom may have already peaked. She explicitly stated that the industry is "far from reaching its performance limits" and that AI will remain a growth driver for many years to come. This firm stance from the top management counters fears of waning demand that weighed on the sector in early December.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AMD?

Analysts are responding to these combined signals. Recent commentary highlights AMD's accelerating positioning in the "inference" market—the segment focused on chips that execute trained AI models rather than solely training them. Some experts believe the "best-case scenario" is materializing here, suggesting that sales expectations for 2026 may be too conservative. In optimistic long-term scenarios, some price targets circulating among analysts reach as high as $400.

Technical Picture and Path Forward

This shift in sentiment arrives at a critical juncture for the stock. After a decline of approximately 10% over the past 30 days, the shares are attempting to conclude their corrective phase. The gap to the 52-week high near 227 euros underscores the latent recovery potential, should a combination of regulatory easing and confirmed inference demand lure bullish investors back.

The sustainable return to an upward trend now hinges on the specific final details of the U.S. export licenses. If re-entry into the Chinese market is successfully achieved and growth rates in the AI application sector are confirmed, the recent pullback could well serve as a foundation for the next growth cycle.